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More Frequent Cyclones in Eastern Arabian Sea

A recent publication in the Nature Journal has drawn attention to the escalating concerns about Climate Change triggering more frequent Tropical Cyclones (TC) in the Eastern Arabian Sea.

• This study is part of the "Forecasting with Fisher's" initiative, led by the Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research (ACARR) at Cochin University of Science and Technology (CUSAT).

Key Insights from the Study

Rising Frequency and Intensity of Cyclones:

• Alterations in ocean and atmosphere warming patterns are leading to an uptick in the occurrence and severity of tropical cyclones in the Eastern Arabian Sea, proximate to the west coast of India.
• Traditionally, tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea transpire at the onset of the southwestern monsoon between March and June, as well as post-monsoon, between October and December.
• While the Arabian Sea constitutes only about 2% of the annual global mean of tropical cyclones, its densely populated coastlines make it a significant threat.

Influence of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD):

• The positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), characterized by uneven warming in different parts of the ocean, results in elevated sea surface temperatures and increased rainfall in the western Indian Ocean region.
• IOD, also known as the Indian Nino, parallels the El Nino phenomenon but is confined to the Indian Ocean, spanning from the Indonesian and Malaysian coastline in the east to the African coastline near Somalia in the west.

Anthropogenic Impact:

• The recent surge in the frequency of exceptionally severe cyclonic storms over the Arabian Sea during the post-monsoon season is attributed to human-induced climate change rather than natural variability.
• Human activities are contributing to the intensification and heightened occurrence of cyclones in the Arabian Sea.

Impact on Western Indian Coast:

• The intensified and more frequent cyclones pose a substantial threat to the densely populated coastal areas along the western coast of India, from Gujarat to Thiruvananthapuram. The heightened risks include powerful winds, storm surges, heavy rainfall, and other associated hazards.

Concerns for Coastal Communities:

• The shifting cyclone patterns are anticipated to significantly impact the lives and livelihoods of indigenous coastal communities and artisanal fishers, necessitating further studies and the development of adaptation strategies.

Recommendations:

• The study underscores the necessity for adjustments in development strategies to address increased cyclone risks. It emphasizes the urgency for updated policies and technologies related to storm warnings and localized weather services.

International Migration Outlook 2023

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) recently unveiled the International Migration Outlook 2023, providing a comprehensive analysis of global migration patterns.

Key Report Highlights:

India Takes Lead in OECD Migration:

• India emerged as the primary contributor to migration to OECD countries in both 2021 and 2022, surpassing China. With a consistent influx of 0.41 million new migrants in each of these years, India led the migration charts. China followed with 0.23 million new migrants, and Romania secured the third spot with around 200,000 new migrants.

Focus on Climate-Induced Displacement:

• The report emphasizes the growing attention to policy responses addressing climate-induced displacement. While few OECD countries have explicit policies on this matter, Colombia has taken a pioneering step by deliberating a bill that aims to recognize and support climate-displaced individuals. The bill encompasses provisions for housing, healthcare, education, and the establishment of a national register.

Record Refugee Inflows and Worker Migration:

• Due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the OECD region witnessed unprecedented refugee inflows, with over 10 million people becoming internally displaced or refugees. Additionally, significant increases in worker migration were observed from countries such as India, Uzbekistan, and Turkey, making them noteworthy source countries following the Ukrainian crisis.

Recent Trends in International Migration:

• Top destination countries, including the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Spain, recorded substantial year-on-year increases ranging from 21% to 35%. Canada, the fifth top destination, experienced a more moderate 8% increase. 
• The United States alone accounted for 1.05 million new permanent-type migrants.

Migration by Main Categories:

• Family migration retained its position as the primary category for new permanent-type migrants in 2022, constituting 40% of all such migration. Labor migration has seen a gradual increase, representing 21% of permanent-type migration in 2022 compared to 16% in 2019. 
• Conversely, free movement migration within the EU-EFTA and between Australia and New Zealand decreased from 28% in 2019 to 21% in 2022.

What is OECD?

Overview:

• The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is an intergovernmental economic organization established to promote economic progress and international trade collaboration.

Membership and Characteristics:

• Most OECD members are characterized by high-income economies and boast a very high Human Development Index (HDI), categorizing them as developed nations.

Establishment:

• Founded in 1961, the OECD is headquartered in Paris, France, and currently comprises 38 member countries.

Recent Additions:

• Colombia joined the OECD in April 2020, followed by Costa Rica in May 2021, as the most recent member nations.
• India, while not a member, maintains a significant role as a key economic partner with the organization.

OECD Reports and Indices:

• The OECD publishes various reports and indices, including:
• Government at a Glance
• OECD Better Life Index.

Fragility of Indian Himalayan Region

The recent dam breach in Sikkim along the Teesta River, coupled with the recent landslides in Himachal Pradesh, serves as a stark reminder of the adverse impact our developmental approach is having on the environment and ecology, particularly in the mountainous expanse known as the Indian Himalayan Region.

The Indian Himalayan Region (IHR):

• This designation pertains to the mountainous terrain within India, encompassing the entire Himalayan range within the country. It spans from the northwestern region of Jammu and Kashmir to the northeastern states, sharing borders with nations like Bhutan, Nepal, and Tibet (China).
• Encompassing 11 states (including Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Sikkim, all northeast states, and West Bengal) and 2 Union Territories (Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh), the IHR is crucial in understanding the ecological challenges posed by developmental activities in this sensitive and ecologically significant area.

What are the Issues in the Indian Himalayan Region (IHR)?

Flaws in Graded Approach:

• Specified flaws in the graded approach of the Indian regulatory system, such as Ministries and Departments emphasise that the IHR is not given special consideration, despite its ecological significance.
• The Himalayas are prone to extreme weather conditions, seismic activity, and the effects of climate change, yet there are no differentiated environmental standards for projects in this region.

Issues in Implementation of Different EIA Stages:

• There is a profound lack in addressing the IHR's needs at all stages of the Environment Impact Assessment (EIA) process, from screening to appraisal, by aligning project requirements with the region's ecological needs.
• The inclusion of clauses in the EIA notification to account for specific characteristics of projects in mountainous areas so as to elevate their liability is also lacking.

Lack of National Level Regulator:

• One significant issue in the EIA process is the absence of a national-level regulator, which was suggested by the Supreme Court in 2011 in Lafarge Umiam Mining (P) Ltd. and T.N. Godavarman Thirumulpad vs Union of India,1995
• Currently, EIA processes tend to favor project proponents, and there is a lack of comprehensive consideration of cumulative impacts, especially in mountainous areas like the IHR.

Issue of Uniformity in EIA 2006 Notification:

• The EIA 2006 notification categorizes projects based on sectors like mining, power generation, and infrastructure, but the threshold limits for requiring an EIA remain the same across the country.
• This uniform approach fails to consider the unique needs and vulnerabilities of the Indian Himalayan Region (IHR), despite its ecological importance and fragility.

Issues in Draft EIA 2020 Notification:

• The EIA process has evolved with several amendments over the years, with a draft EIA in 2020 raising concerns about being perceived as pro-industry and neglecting ecological considerations. The EIA, when used diligently, can be a potent tool for environmental governance and sustainable development.

Steps to Safeguard the Ecological Fragility of IHR:

Tailored Environmental Standards:

• Establish environmental standards that are tailored to the fragility and vulnerability of the region. These standards should be integrated into the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) process, subjecting projects in the IHR to more rigorous regulations and scrutiny.

Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA):

• Consider implementing Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) to evaluate the cumulative impact of development in the area. Integrating SEA into the clearance process provides a comprehensive understanding of potential consequences.

Local Community Engagement:

• Involve local communities in decision-making processes, as they possess valuable insights into the region's ecology. Their participation can contribute to ecologically sound and socially responsible project outcomes.

Ecosystem-Based Approaches:

• Adopt ecosystem-based approaches to development, recognizing the IHR's role in maintaining regional and national ecological balance. Prioritize policies that protect and restore ecosystems, including forests, rivers, and biodiversity.

Rethink Infrastructure Development:

• Plan infrastructure projects in the IHR with careful consideration. Rigorous assessments for projects such as dams, roads, and hydropower plants should be conducted to minimize environmental impact. Explore alternative technologies and routes that are less disruptive.

Cross-Border Collaboration:

• Engage in cross-border cooperation, as the Himalayan region spans multiple countries. Collaborative efforts are crucial for addressing shared environmental challenges, including air and water pollution.

Public Awareness and Education:

• Raise public awareness about the ecological significance of the IHR. Education and advocacy can lead to more responsible behavior and choices among individuals, corporations, and policymakers.

Nature-Based Tourism:

• Develop sustainable and responsible tourism practices that generate income for local communities while minimizing negative environmental impacts. This may involve promoting eco-tourism, enforcing carrying capacity limits, and raising awareness among tourists.

What is Draft Environment Impact Assessment (EIA) Notification 2020?

About:

• The Draft EIA Notification 2020, when it was introduced, aimed to replace the previous EIA Notification of 2006.

Post-facto Clearance:

• The draft notification introduced the concept of post-facto clearance, which would allow certain projects to seek environmental clearance even after they had begun operations without clearance.

Reduced Public Participation:

• Critics argued that the draft notification weakened the public consultation process, making it more challenging for concerned citizens and communities to voice their opinions and objections regarding proposed projects.

Exemptions for Certain Projects:

• The draft notification proposed exemptions for certain categories of projects, allowing them to bypass the EIA process.

Extension of Project Validity:

• It suggested extending the validity period of environmental clearances for various projects, potentially reducing the need for frequent re-evaluations of environmental impacts.

Dilution of Compliance Reports:

• There were concerns about the dilution of compliance reports, which are meant to ensure that projects adhere to environmental conditions and standards.
• The draft notification generated dubious standards, with environmental activists, experts, and concerned citizens voicing their objections.

EIA in India

Overview:

• The initiation of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) in India traces back more than two decades, commencing in 1976-77 when the Planning Commission tasked the Department of Science and Technology with evaluating river-valley projects from an environmental perspective.
• EIA 1994 Notification:
• In 1994, the Union Ministry of Environment and Forests, operating under the Environmental (Protection) Act of 1986, introduced an EIA notification that mandated Environmental Clearance (EC) for the expansion, modernization, or establishment of new projects listed in Schedule 1 of the notification.

EIA 2006 Notification:

• In September 2006, the Ministry of Environment, Forests and Climate Change (MoEFCC) implemented a new EIA legislation. This legislation made it compulsory for a range of projects, including mining, thermal power plants, river valley projects, infrastructure developments (roads, highways, ports, harbors, and airports), and various industries, including small electroplating or foundry units, to obtain environmental clearance.
• Unlike the 1994 EIA Notification, the updated legislation places the responsibility for project clearance on the state government, dependent on the project's size or capacity.

Subansiri Lower Hydroelectric Project

• The Subansiri Lower Hydroelectric Project, India's largest hydropower initiative currently under construction, encountered a setback as a landslide obstructed the sole operational diversion tunnel.
• This blockade halted the flow of water downstream of the dam, causing the Subansiri River, a crucial Brahmaputra tributary, to dry up and putting aquatic life at risk. The incident has raised concerns about the project's safety and feasibility, facing delays and opposition since its initiation in 2005.

Overview of the Subansiri Lower Hydroelectric Project

• The Subansiri Lower Hydroelectric Project is designed as a run-of-river scheme with the goal of generating 2,000 MW of power by harnessing the Subansiri River's potential, flowing along the Arunachal Pradesh and Assam border.
• A run-of-river dam maintains a consistent downstream water flow similar to the upstream flow.
• National Hydroelectric Power Corporation (NHPC) is responsible for executing the project.

Key Components:

• Construction of a 116-meter-high concrete gravity dam.
• Development of a 34.5-km-long reservoir.
• Creation of five diversion tunnels.
• Implementation of eight spillways.
• Establishment of a powerhouse equipped with eight 250-MW units.
• A gravity dam, constructed from concrete, utilizes its weight to withstand the horizontal pressure of water.

Expected Outcomes:

• Annual generation of approximately 7,500 million units of power in a 90% dependable year.
• Provision of flood moderation, irrigation, and drinking water benefits to downstream areas.

Project Timeline:

• NHPC Limited initiated construction in January 2005, but due to local protests, work stalled from December 2011 to October 2019. Construction resumed on October 15, 2019, following clearance by the National Green Tribunal.