Geography: September 2024 UPSC Current Affairs | Current Affairs & Hindu Analysis: Daily, Weekly & Monthly PDF Download

La Niña Predictions

Why in News? 

Recently, all major global meteorological agencies have notably missed the mark in their predictions for La Niña in 2024. India had relied on this crucial climate phenomenon to bring increased rainfall during August-September 2024.

What is La Niña?

1. La Niña: meaning "The Little Girl" in Spanish, is a phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a phenomenon that significantly drives global natural climate variability. 

• ENSO refers to changes in the temperature of the ocean's surface in the tropical Pacific region.
• These temperature shifts are caused by variations in the atmosphere above the ocean.
• Such changes in temperature can alter the patterns of global atmospheric circulation.
• This disruption can lead to significant effects on weather patterns around the world.
• The impact of these changes can vary greatly, affecting many different regions and climates.

2. The ENSO occurs in irregular cycles ranging from two to seven years and comprises three phases: warm (El Niño, or "The Little Boy" in Spanish), cool (La Niña), and neutral. 

3. During the neutral phase: the eastern Pacific (near the northwestern coast of South America) is cooler than the western Pacific (around the Philippines and Indonesia). 

• The difference in temperature happens because of the trade winds, which are caused by the Earth's rotation.
• These winds blow from east to west between 30 degrees north and 30 degrees south of the equator.
• As the trade winds push warmer surface water towards the west, this creates a shift in the water layers.
• To fill the space left by the warm water moving west, cooler waters from below come up to the surface.

4. During the El Niño phase: trade winds weaken, resulting in less displacement of warm waters along the American coasts, causing the eastern Pacific to warm more than usual. 

5. In the La Niña phase: trade winds strengthen, pushing larger volumes of water toward the western Pacific, leading to cooler temperatures in the eastern Pacific. 

• In India, El Niño usually means there will be less rain during the monsoon season.
• On the other hand, La Niña often leads to more rain and stronger monsoon activity.
• The latest El Niño event took place from June 2023 to May 2024.
•  This event followed one of the longest La Niña periods on record, which lasted from 2020 to 2023.

6. Impacts: The impacts of both El Niño and La Niña-related hazards, including extreme temperatures, heavy rainfall, and droughts, have been intensified by anthropogenic climate change.  

What did Global Weather Models Predict in 2024? 

• One of the most powerful El Niño events on record ended in June 2024, leading the ENSO to enter a neutral phase.
• At first, many global weather models expected La Niña conditions to start in July. However, by mid-July, it was clear that this would be delayed.
• The NOAA in the US noted that the change from neutral to positive sea surface temperatures, which indicates the shift from neutral ENSO to La Niña, was likely to happen between August and October.
• Likewise, the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) in Australia kept a La Niña 'watch' in July 2024, forecasting that cooler-than-normal sea surface conditions would develop later in the year.
• Since its first long-range forecast in mid-April, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) consistently predicted the arrival of La Niña.
• Importantly, La Niña was expected to increase rainfall in August and September 2024, with seasonal predictions relying on the development of La Niña, which was thought to lead to 'above normal' rainfall during the last two months of the monsoon.

Why were Initial Predictions off the Mark? 

• The reason given by weather experts for the mistake in forecasting the start of La Niña is its expected mild strength.
• Weather models are better at spotting signals during strong phases of La Niña (or El Niño) but struggle with weaker phases.
• Several factors affect both surface and subsurface conditions in the Pacific Ocean, including changes in weather patterns, winds, and air pressure.
• These factors are closely connected to the movement of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is a band of rain-producing winds and clouds that moves eastward.
• The interaction between these different weather systems makes predictions more complicated.
• Recent predictions indicate that the first signs of La Niña will likely show up by late September or early October.
• La Niña is expected to reach its peak in November and will continue throughout the winter in the northern hemisphere.

What will be the La Niña’s Impact on Indian Weather? 

• La Niña usually brings more rain during India's southwest monsoon.
• As the 2024 monsoon season is almost finished, and La Niña conditions have not yet appeared in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, this weather pattern will not affect the country's rainfall right now.
• If La Niñadevelops by late September or October, it could impact rainfall during the northeast monsoon season (October-December), which mainly affects: 
  • Tamil Nadu
  • Coastal Andhra Pradesh
  • Rayalaseema
  • Southern interior Karnataka
  • Kerala
• Usually, La Niña does not favor rainfall during the northeast monsoon, although there have been some exceptions in the past.
• The north Indian Ocean, which includes the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, often sees cyclone formation from March to May and October to December, with the highest activity in May and November.
• In La Niña years, there is a greater chance of more frequent storms, which can be more powerful and last longer.
• Historically, years with La Niña have been linked to colder and harsher winters.

Uncommon Cyclones in the Arabian Sea

Why in News?

Recently, the Arabian Sea witnessed a rare August cyclone, named Asna, which stirred considerable interest due to its unusual timing and origin. The north Indian Ocean, which includes the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, is typically less active in terms of cyclones compared to global oceanic regions. However, Asna's emergence has brought attention to the growing influence of climate change on cyclogenesis in this region.

What are the Factors Contributing to Cyclogenesis in the North Indian Ocean?

1. Oceanic Tunnels: The Indian Ocean has special oceanic tunnels that connect it to the Pacific and Southern Oceans.

• The Pacific Tunnel (known as the Indonesian Throughflow) brings warm water into the top 500 meters of the Indian Ocean. This adds to the higher sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Arabian Sea, which might increase convection and the amount of moisture available.
• Warm SSTs can create energy for cyclone development, but other factors might limit this effect.
• The Southern Ocean Tunnel carries cooler water below 1 kilometer deep. This can help to stabilize the lower layers of the ocean and restrict the mixing of warmer surface waters.
• The cooler waters can also lower SSTs and reduce the energy available for cyclone formation, which might decrease cyclonic activity.

2. Pre and Post-Monsoon Cyclones:The north Indian Ocean, which includes the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, has two different cyclone seasons:

• Pre-monsoon (from April to June)
• Post-monsoon (from October to December)
• This is different from many other regions that usually have only one cyclone season.
• The area's unique weather and ocean conditions, such as the monsoon winds and significant seasonal wind changes, lead to these two cyclone seasons.
• During the pre-monsoon period, cyclones can form in both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal due to rising temperatures and increased convection.
• In the post-monsoon season (October to December), the northeast monsoon and dry air from the continent cool the Arabian Sea, making it less likely for cyclones to form. However, the Bay of Bengal stays more suitable for cyclones.
• Climate change is affecting the patterns and strength of cyclones in the Indian Ocean.

How does Climate Change Impact the Indian Ocean?

• Rapid Warming:The Indian Ocean is getting warmer quickly due to climate change.
  • Heat from the Pacific Ocean and warmer water from the Southern Ocean are adding to this increase.
  • Changes in wind patterns and humidity, caused by global climate changes, are also making the Indian Ocean warmer.
• Global Influence:The fast warming of the Indian Ocean is affecting how heat is absorbed by the Pacific Ocean and how heavy water sinks in the North Atlantic Ocean.
  • The Indian Ocean acts like a clearinghouse, helping to manage global climate changes and balancing overall heat levels.
• Cyclogenesis Impact:The rapid warming and related climate changes are influencing how cyclones form, how often they occur, and their behavior.
  • This shows how the region responds differently to global warming compared to other places.

Cyclone Asna

• Cyclone Asna is an unusual cyclone that formed in August, drawing a lot of interest as it is the first cyclone in the North Indian Ocean during this month since 1981.
• The name Asna was given by Pakistan and means “the one to be acknowledged or praised.”
• This cyclone started from a strong low-pressure system that typically forms over the Bay of Bengal and usually brings heavy monsoon rains to India.
• As the system moved into the warm waters of the Arabian Sea, it developed into a cyclone. This development was supported by factors such as global warming and local weather patterns, which provided the energy needed for Asna to grow stronger.
• Eventually, Cyclone Asna weakened because dry air from the desert entered the cyclone's structure, disrupting its formation.
• Climate change is causing cyclones in the Indian Ocean to become less predictable. Factors like global warming, El Niño, and underwater volcanic eruptions are all leading to extreme weather events in India. 
•  The monsoon season in India has become more erratic, with rainfall patterns that are increasingly hard to predict. 

Global Plastic Pollution

Why in news?

A recent study published in the journal Nature has revealed that India is the highest contributor to global plastic pollution. 

About : 

• In 2020, around 369 million tons of plastics were traded, which had a total value of $1.2 trillion.
• This was a significant rise from $933 billion in the previous year.
• If no actions are taken to reduce plastic use, this amount is expected to triple by 2040.
• The annual costs associated with plastic pollution are estimated to be $2.2 trillion.
• This includes:
  • $1.5 trillion due to damage to oceans.
  • $695 billion related to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
  • About $25 billion for land pollution.

Causes of Plastic waste

• High Consumption: In India, more than 40% of plastic waste comes from single-use items such as carry bags, wrappers, and straws. The country produces around 3.5 million tonnes of plastic waste every year. 
• Inadequate Waste Management: The Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) has reported that only 9% of all plastic ever made has been recycled worldwide. Additionally, 12% has been burned, while the remaining plastic ends up in landfills and the environment. 
• Increased Urbanization: In the United States, over 80% of municipal solid waste comes from urban areas. 
• Awareness and Behavioral Issues: According to the UN, around 8 million tonnes of plastic waste enter the oceans each year, primarily due to poor waste management in coastal regions, showing a lack of awareness and improper disposal methods. 
• Global Trade in Plastic Waste: After China imposed a ban, the export of plastic waste to Southeast Asia increased significantly, with Malaysia's imports rising by over 300% in 2018. This led to illegal dumping and burning of plastic waste. 
• Plastic in the Fisheries and Shipping Industry: In the Great Pacific Garbage Patch, it is estimated that 46% of the total waste is made up of discarded fishing nets, which cause entanglement and death for marine animals. 

Challenges of Plastic Waste 

• Flooding in Mumbai: The floods in Mumbai in 2005 were made worse because drains were blocked by plastic.
• Marine Pollution: A large percentage of seabirds (90%) and more than half of sea turtles (52%) consume plastic. When plastic waste is burned, it releases dangerous chemicals like dioxins and furans.
• Health Risks: Burning plastic generates cancer-causing substances and other harmful toxins, which can cause breathing problems. Additionally, tiny plastic particles, known as microplastics, have been found in drinking water and food.
• Economic Consequences: By the year 2030, India might lose over USD 133 billion due to the materials used in plastic packaging.
• Increase in Packaging Waste: As the e-commerce industry grows, there is a rise in the use of plastic packaging materials, such as bubble wrap, air pillows, and polybags.
• Agricultural Pollution: Microplastics can build up in farm soils, which can harm soil health, reduce crop production, and jeopardize food safety.

Plastic Overshoot Day

• The term Plastic Overshoot Day is similar to Earth Overshoot Day, which indicates the day when humanity’s use of natural resources surpasses what the Earth can naturally replenish within a year.
• In the year 2024, the global Plastic Overshoot Day will fall on September 5th.
• This day serves as a reminder of the impact of plastic consumption and highlights the need for more sustainable practices in managing plastic waste.
• It emphasizes the importance of reducing our reliance on plastic and finding better alternatives to protect our planet's resources.

Arctic Plastic Crisis

• The Arctic plastic crisis is a serious issue concerning the buildup of plastic waste in the Arctic area.
• This accumulation has harmful effects on the local environment and wildlife.
• There are also potential risks to human health due to this plastic pollution.
• The Arctic acts as a catchment area for various chemicals and plastics.
• These materials are carried to the Arctic through air and ocean currents from regions closer to the equator.
• This process is known as global distillation or the "grasshopper effect."

Key findings of Plastic waste In India 

• The plastic waste produced by India accounts for about 20% of the world's total plastic emissions.
• India generates around 0.12 kilograms of waste for each person every day.
• In countries of the Global South, like India, waste management often involves open burning, while countries in the Global North use more controlled methods, resulting in less uncontrolled waste.
• The Public Accounts Committee noted that the 2022 audit by the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) revealed that several State Pollution Control Boards (SPCBs) did not provide information on plastic waste generation for the years 2016 to 2018.
• There were also inconsistencies in the data reported by Urban Local Bodies (ULBs) to the SPCBs.

India’s Efforts In Tackling Plastic Waste

• Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR): This concept holds plastic manufacturers accountable for the management and disposal of waste produced by their products.
• Plastic Waste Management (Amendment) Rules, 2022: These rules ban the creation, import, storage, distribution, sale, and use of plastic bags that are thinner than 120 microns.
• Swachh Bharat Abhiyan: A nationwide cleanliness initiative aimed at collecting and properly disposing of plastic waste.
• Plastic Parks: Designated industrial areas focused on recycling and processing plastic waste effectively.
• Beach Clean-up Drives: Organized efforts to gather and remove plastic waste from beaches.

Global Efforts In Tackling Plastic Waste

• London Convention: This is the 1972 Convention aimed at stopping marine pollution caused by dumping waste and other materials into the sea.
• Clean Seas Campaign: Launched by the United Nations Environment Programme in 2017, this campaign is the biggest global effort to raise awareness about plastic pollution and litter in the oceans.
• Basel Convention: In 2019, this convention was updated to classify plastic waste as a controlled material to manage its disposal better.
• UN Environment's #BeatPlasticPollution campaign: Started in 2018, this initiative encourages worldwide actions and individual efforts to cut down on plastic waste.
• The Ocean Cleanup project: This initiative focuses on removing plastic from the oceans using advanced technologies, such as the Interceptor, which captures plastics from rivers before they enter the ocean.

Way Ahead

•  To address the issue of plastic pollution, we need to change people's behaviors and improve the system for collecting, sorting, and recycling plastic waste. 
•  According to the UN Environment Assembly Resolution 5/14, the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC) is tasked with creating a legally binding global treaty on plastics, which is expected to be completed by the end of 2024. 

Carbon Market in India

Why in News?

The Ministry of Power and Ministry of Environment will develop Carbon Credit Trading Scheme for Decarbonisation.

About : 

1. What are Carbon Markets ?

• The main parts of cap-and-trade programs are meant to cut down on greenhouse gas emissions.
• These programs are often known as Emissions Trading Systems (ETS).
• In these systems, governments or groups of governments establish a total limit on emissions.
• They then assign specific emission limits to various entities, which can include countries or companies.
• Entities that fall under these rules must follow the limits set for them.
• This approach encourages companies to reduce their emissions because they can trade their limits with others.
• If a company emits less than its limit, it can sell its extra allowance to another company that is struggling to meet its limit.
• This trading system creates a financial incentive for companies to lower their emissions.

2. Types of Carbon Markets

• Voluntary Carbon Markets: These markets involve the creation, purchase, and sale of carbon credits on a voluntary basis.
• Compliance Markets: These markets are established due to national, regional, or international laws and regulations that require compliance.

Working Mechanism of Carbon Markets

• Cap and Trade: This system sets a maximum limit on overall emissions. Organizations receive allowances for the amount of emissions they are allowed to produce and can trade these allowances with one another.
• Carbon Credits and Allowances: These are tradable permits that represent a reduction or removal of one tonne of CO₂. They can be bought and sold in the market, allowing for flexibility in meeting emission targets.
• Pricing Carbon: This approach gives a monetary value to carbon emissions. By doing so, it encourages companies to lower their emissions. If a company emits less than its limit, it can sell its extra credits.
• Examples of Carbon Markets:
  • Indian Voluntary Carbon Market: This market offers voluntary carbon credits that come from projects which exceed the legal requirements. Such projects may include activities like planting trees, using renewable energy, or making energy use more efficient.
  • Global Carbon Markets: According to the World Bank, carbon trading has the potential to significantly lower the costs of achieving climate goals set by countries, reducing these costs by more than 50%.

Major Challenges Related to Carbon Taxation in India

• Economic Impact on Industries: A carbon tax could significantly influence India's sectors that use a lot of energy, such as steel, cement, and textiles.
• Regressive Impact on Lower-Income Groups: Carbon taxes might hit lower-income families the hardest because they spend a larger portion of their earnings on energy.
• Limited Effectiveness: Although carbon taxes can help cut down CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels, their overall impact is not as strong, according to the World Economic Forum.
• Challenges in the Informal Sector: In India, a large part of the workforce, about 90%, works in the informal sector, making it harder to enforce a carbon tax effectively. 
• Carbon Leakage Risk: There is a chance that industries could move to places with fewer regulations, which would lessen the effectiveness of carbon taxes.

Measures India can adopt for Establishment of Carbon Market 

• Gradual Carbon Tax Implementation: India can start a carbon tax with a low initial rate and gradually increase it over time. This approach helps industries adjust more easily to the changes. 
• Border Carbon Adjustments: Introduce measures at the borders to ensure that domestic industries are protected from unfair competition due to carbon emissions. This helps prevent carbon leakage, where businesses move to areas with less strict regulations. 
• Encouraging Clean Technology: Alongside the carbon tax, offer incentives for the transfer and adoption of clean technologies. This is especially important for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to help them transition to greener practices. 
• SME Carbon Credit Pooling: Create a cooperative system for SMEs to work together in the carbon market. This allows them to participate more effectively and gain more benefits from carbon trading. 
• Enhancing Green Finance: Develop a robust ecosystem for green finance to support the growth of the carbon market. This will help fund projects that contribute to reducing carbon emissions and promote sustainability. 

Arctic And Its Impact On Monsoon

Why in News?

A study by India’s National Centre for Polar and Ocean Research (NCPOR) and South Korea’s Korea Polar Research Institute, published in Remote Sensing of Environment (June 2023), shows the seasonal changes in Arctic sea ice affecting the Indian monsoon.

About : 

• Climate change has a big impact on changing the patterns of monsoons.
• Climate models show that the temperatures of the Indian, Atlantic, and Pacific Oceans play a major role.
• The circum-global teleconnection (CGT) also significantly affects the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR).
• These ocean temperatures and CGT are crucial for understanding how monsoons behave.

Impact of Arctic Sea Ice on Indian Monsoon 

• 1. Central Arctic Sea Ice Decline:
  • Less sea ice in the Arctic Ocean and nearby areas leads to:
  • Decreased rainfall in western and peninsular India.
  • Increased rainfall in central and northern India.
  • This happens because of more heat transfer from the ocean to the air.
  • Stronger Rossby waves change global weather patterns.
  • Stronger Rossby waves cause:
    • High pressure over northwest India.
    • Low pressure over the Mediterranean.
    • Shifting of the subtropical easterly jet northwards.
    • This shift leads to more rainfall in western and peninsular India.
• 2. Low Sea Ice in the Barents-Kara Sea Region:
  • Less sea ice in the Barents-Kara Sea increases:
  • Atmospheric pressure over southwest China.
  • Contributes to a positive Arctic Oscillation, affecting global climate.
  • Lower sea ice levels result in:
    • More heat being released.
    • Calm, clear skies over northwest Europe.
  • These changes disturb upper air conditions in subtropical Asia and India, leading to:
    • Higher rainfall in northeastern India.
    • Less rainfall in central and northwest regions.
• 3. Role of Climate Change:
  • The warming of the Arabian Sea adds more moisture from nearby waters.
  • This further disrupts weather patterns.
  • It increases the variability of monsoon rainfall.

Key Findings related to Surplus Rain in North-Western (NW) India

• Increased Moisture from the Arabian Sea: The amount of moisture coming from the Arabian Sea is rising, leading to wetter monsoon seasons in northwest India. This trend is expected to continue, especially with high levels of emissions.
• Changes in Wind Patterns: There are stronger winds blowing over the Arabian Sea and weaker winds in northern India. These changes trap more moisture in northwest India, which increases rainfall. The stronger winds also lead to more evaporation from the Arabian Sea, adding to the overall precipitation in the area.
• Shifts in Pressure Gradients: There is higher pressure near the Mascarene Islands and lower pressure in the equatorial Indian Ocean. This shift has made the monsoon winds stronger, resulting in more rainfall in northwest India. 
• Amplified East-West Pressure Gradient: A stronger east-west pressure difference, influenced by high pressure over the eastern Pacific, may further strengthen the monsoon winds, raising the chances of heavier rains in the future. 

Places in News

1. Keoladeo National Park 

Why in News?

India’s first ‘teal carbon’ study, conducted at Keoladeo National Park in Rajasthan.

• Keoladeo was designated as a national park in 1982.
• It was recognized as a World Heritage Site by UNESCO in 1985.
• The park is situated in the eastern region of Rajasthan.
• It is known for being a breeding ground for the rare and hard-to-see Siberian crane.
• It is located near Bharatpur.

2. Kanwar Lake 

Why in News?

Once a haven for migratory birds, is now gradually disappearing.

• Kabartal Jheel is another name for this lake.
• This lake is a residual oxbow lake, created by the winding path of the Gandak River, which is a part of the Ganga River system.
• It spans most of the Indo-Gangetic plains located in northern Bihar.
• The wetland serves as a crucial stopover for migratory birds along the Central Asian Flyway, with around 58 species of waterbirds visiting to rest and gather energy.
• Additionally, it is an important location for fish diversity, hosting more than 50 documented species.
• It is located near Begusarai.

3. Ankasamudra Bird Conservation Reserve

Why in News?

The site has been recently added in the list of Ramsar Sites .

• The site is a man-made wetland designed to hold excess water from the Tungabhadra River during the monsoon season.
• This wetland helps provide irrigation to nearby areas that are at risk of drought.
• There are problems caused by the rapid growth of invasive speciessuch as:
  • Alligator weed (Alternanthera philoxeroides)
  • Prosopis juliflora, a type of shrub
  • African catfish (Clarias gariepinus)
• These invasive species threaten the local fish populations and waterbirds.
•  The location of this wetland is approximately in the Vijayanagara District.

4. Rayagada 

Why in News?

10 people died of Lightning Strike in Rayagada , Odisha 

• This is a district located in the southern part of Odisha that became its own district in October 1992.
• The population primarily includes tribal groups, especially the Khonds and the Soras.
• The district is known to have abundant resources of bauxite and silicon.
• In 2006, the Ministry of Panchayati Raj recognized Rayagada as one of the 250 most backward districts in the country, out of a total of 640 districts.
• It is located approximately near Sambalpur.

5. Gumti river

Why in News

Gumti River flood unveils complexity in ties between Bangladesh, India. 

• The Gumti, also known as Gomti, Gumati, or Gomati, is a river that flows through the northeastern Indian state of Tripura and the Comilla district in Bangladesh.
• A dam has been built near Dumbur on this river, creating a reservoir that covers an area of 40 square kilometers.
• The river flows in a southern direction through Tripura, India, before entering Bangladesh, where it joins the Meghna River.