India and Global Centres of Power - 2 | PSIR Optional for UPSC (Notes) PDF Download

India-Russia Relations

India and Russia have shared a strong and time-tested relationship, with the roots of their partnership dating back to the Soviet era. This relationship has evolved over the years, adapting to the changing geopolitical landscape and embracing new areas of cooperation. In this article, we will examine the history of India-Russia relations, the challenges faced during the post-Cold War period, and the current state of their special and privileged strategic partnership.

Historical Background
India's relationship with the Soviet Union (USSR) began soon after the latter's independence, when the USSR emerged as India's most trusted ally. The Soviet Union played a crucial role in India's security and its scientific and industrial development. The Indo-Soviet Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation, signed in 1971, marked a significant milestone in their bilateral relationship.

Post-Cold War Challenges

• Following the end of the Cold War, Russia initially adopted a pro-West policy, coming under pressure from the United States. This led to certain setbacks in India-Russia relations, such as Russia's denial of technology transfer related to cryogenic engines and its insistence on settling debt in dollars. 
• However, Russia soon realized that the West could not be fully trusted and began to reevaluate its foreign policy.

Revival of the Relationship
During the tenure of President Boris Yeltsin, Russia reviewed the Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation, removing the clause that assured defense to each other in case of attack from a third party. Despite this change, the revised treaty emphasized strengthening their partnership. This marked the beginning of a new phase in India-Russia relations.

Current State of India-Russia Relations

India and Russia continue to maintain a robust and multifaceted relationship, with their ties dating back to the Soviet era. The current state of India-Russia relations, especially  is marked by cooperation across key areas:

• Defense Cooperation: Russia remains a major supplier of defense equipment to India, providing over 60% of India's military hardware, including T-90 tanks, Su-30 MKI aircraft, and the S-400 missile systems. Joint projects like the BrahMos missile and AK-203 rifles are key examples of their defense collaboration.
• Energy and Economic Partnership: India has significantly increased its imports of discounted Russian crude oil since the Ukraine war, taking advantage of Western sanctions on Russian oil. Trade between the two countries stands at around $65 billion, with Russia being an important source of fertilizers, minerals, and hydrocarbons for India.
• Strategic and Geopolitical Cooperation : India and Russia continue to work together in multilateral platforms such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and both advocate for a multipolar world order. They have avoided direct conflict over sensitive geopolitical issues, such as the Russia-Ukraine war.
• Technological and Scientific Collaboration: India and Russia cooperate in areas like civil nuclear energy, with joint projects such as the Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant, and space exploration, including collaboration on India's Gaganyaan mission.

Despite this close partnership, challenges exist, such as India's balancing act between its growing ties with the U.S. and its historical partnership with Russia, particularly amid global shifts due to the Ukraine conflict. However, both countries remain committed to their Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership.

Concerns

Despite the longstanding and strategic partnership between India and Russia, several concerns have emerged in their relationship, especially in recent years:

• Geopolitical Shifts
   1. Russia-China Proximity:  As Russia grows closer to China, India's main regional rival, there is concern in New Delhi. This complicates India's position, especially given its ongoing border disputes with China. Russia’s increasing dependence on China, particularly after Western sanctions due to the Ukraine war, may limit its strategic flexibility in balancing ties with India .
  2.   Balancing Ties with the West : India has deepening ties with Western countries, especially the U.S., in areas like defense and technology, which may strain relations with Russia. India's participation in the  Quad  (with the U.S., Japan, and Australia) and its Indo-Pacific strategy, which counters Chinese influence, contrasts with Russia's strategic objectives.
• Economic Dependency and Trade Imbalance
  1.  Rising Oil Imports : India’s heavy reliance on discounted Russian oil has helped meet its energy needs, but it has created a lopsided trade balance in Russia’s favor. India has been looking to diversify its energy sources, which could affect future trade relations.
  2. Western Sanctions : India's economic engagement with Russia is complicated by the Western sanctions imposed after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. These sanctions impact sectors like banking, technology, and defense cooperation.
• Defense Diversification 
  1. Dependence on Russian Arms : Although Russia remains a critical supplier, India has been diversifying its defense acquisitions to include Western partners like the U.S., France, and Israel. This reduces India’s dependency on Russian military equipment, potentially straining future defense cooperation .
  2.    Technological Limitations: Some Russian defense equipment, such as the delayed delivery of the S-400 missile system, has caused frustrations in India. Additionally, Russia's technological capabilities in certain sectors have been overshadowed by Western alternatives.
• Ukraine Conflict
  1.   Diplomatic Tightrope : India has adopted a neutral stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, refusing to condemn Russia while emphasizing dialogue and diplomacy. This neutral approach has led to criticism from Western allies, although India has maintained its energy and defense ties with Russia.

 In summary, while India and Russia maintain strong strategic ties, these concerns highlight the complexities of their relationship in an evolving global landscape.

To address these issues, both India and Russia need to maintain open channels of communication and transparency in their dealings. India should also leverage its position to build bridges between the US and Russia to counter the common threat of a rising China. Moreover, Russia should not take any actions that could compromise India's security, and both countries should engage in candid dialogue to resolve their differences.

Views of Scholars

Srinath Raghavan's Views on the Myth of Idyllic Indo-Russian Ties
According to Srinath Raghavan, it is a myth that India-Russia relations have been too idealistic. Russia has always viewed India through the prism of realism. For instance, during the 1962 war, Russia shared intelligence with China and had put the supply of Migs on hold. Additionally, during the 1965 war, Russia pressed India to return the occupied territories. Raghavan argues that throughout the Cold War, Russia viewed India in terms of geopolitical competition with the USA. After the Cold War, Russia continued to approach relations with India through the lens of realism, viewing the country from a transactional perspective as a buyer.

C Rajamohan's Views on India-Russia Relations
C Rajamohan believes that Russia's embrace of China and its flirtations with Pakistan are creating unease for India. He argues that India should look at Russia with "clear-eyed realism" and focus on the opportunities that exist in a multipolar world. As middle powers, India and Russia can collaborate on various fronts. While the term "transactional" may not be appealing to some, it is a realistic approach to politics.

Shyam Sharan's Views on India-Russia Relations
Shyam Sharan asserts that while the nostalgia of the Soviet era may be useful, it cannot drive present-day relations between India and Russia. He highlights that the weakest aspect of this relationship is that it is driven primarily through government-to-government interactions. Sharan contends that no relationship can progress on a single track and that there is a need to strengthen economic engagement, which currently stands at just $10 billion. Improving people-to-people relations and operationalizing the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) may help enhance the relationship between the two countries.

India-Japan Relations

• Strong Bilateral Ties: India and Japan have a close partnership based on mutual trust, understanding of each other's interests and concerns, and shared core values of democracy, peace, and the rule of law. Regular high-level interactions between the two countries have further strengthened this relationship.
• Civil Nuclear Agreement: Japan has ended its hesitation in signing a civil nuclear agreement with India, despite its sensitivity to nuclear issues. This move signifies the trust and cooperation between the two nations.
• Defense Cooperation: Japan has lifted its self-imposed moratorium on selling defense equipment to India. There is a possibility of Japan exporting US2 amphibious aircraft, which would increase India's surveillance capacity.
• High-Level Visits: Japanese Emperor and Empress visited India, a very rare occasion that underscores the importance of the bilateral relationship. Additionally, the personal chemistry between Indian Prime Minister Modi and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has further enhanced the ties between the two countries.
• Strategic Partnership: For the first time, Japan has taken a strategic view of the Indian Ocean and considers the Indo-Pacific as a single geopolitical entity. India has reciprocated by becoming a part of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), which includes the United States, Japan, Australia, and India.
• Asia-Africa Growth Corridor: India and Japan are working together on the Asia-Africa Growth Corridor, a joint initiative aimed at promoting economic development and connectivity between Asia and Africa.
• Infrastructure Development: Japan is the only country permitted by India to develop infrastructure in the sensitive northeastern region, reflecting the trust between the two nations.
• Rare Earth Elements Supply: India will supply rare earth elements, crucial for Japan's electronics industry, further strengthening the economic ties between the two countries.
• Security of Sea Lines of Communication: Japan is dependent on India for the security of its sea lines of communication, further emphasizing the strategic importance of their partnership.
• Currency Swap Agreement: India and Japan have a currency swap agreement worth $75 billion, facilitating trade and investment between the two countries.
• Space Cooperation: India and Japan are cooperating in the field of space, with plans for joint lunar exploration and satellite technology development.
• Acquisition and Cross Servicing Agreement (ACSA): ACSA allows India and Japan to use each other's military bases for logistical support. India can use Japan's base in Djibouti, while Japan can use India's base in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

India-Japan relations have entered a "Cherry Blossom" phase, characterized by strong ties and cooperation across various sectors, including defense, economy, infrastructure, and space. The strategic partnership between the two countries is crucial in maintaining peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region.

Current Foreign Policy of Japan

Japan's current foreign policy under Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is shaped by growing regional security concerns, economic priorities, and evolving geopolitical dynamics. Key aspects include:

1. Security and Defense: Japan has significantly increased its defense budget, aiming for 2% of GDP, and introduced new strike capabilities. This is in response to threats from China, North Korea, and Russia. Japan is also focusing on bolstering its military alliance with the U.S. while pursuing enhanced security cooperation with regional partners like Australia, India, and South Korea.

2.Economic Security : Japan is emphasizing the protection of critical technologies and supply chains through new economic security measures. The Kishida government has prioritized maintaining robust trade partnerships and economic alliances, notably through free trade agreements and economic partnerships that now cover about 80% of Japan's trade.

3. Diplomacy and Multilateralism: While Japan remains closely allied with the U.S., there are calls for a more autonomous foreign policy. Some experts advocate for a balanced approach, suggesting Japan should engage in "middle power diplomacy" with countries like India and Australia, while maintaining cautious engagement with China.

4. Regional Relations: Japan's relations with South Korea have improved recently, facilitated by U.S. mediation and South Korean President Yoon’s diplomacy. However, its ties with Russia have deteriorated significantly due to Japan’s alignment with Western sanctions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

This foreign policy reflects Japan's efforts to navigate complex security challenges while balancing economic interests and its traditional reliance on U.S. alliances.

India and Japan current relations

The relationship between India and Japan is currently marked by strong strategic, economic, and defense cooperation. Here are the key points:

• Strategic and Defense Cooperation
  1. India and Japan share a  Special Strategic and Global Partnership since 2014, reflecting their deepening ties. Both nations are committed to a  free and open Indo-Pacific, supporting ASEAN's centrality and opposing unilateral changes in the region's status quo.
  2. Joint military exercises such as  Dharma Guardian (Army) , JIMEX (Navy) , and  Shinyuu Maitri (Air Force)  strengthen defense cooperation.
  3. In August 2024, the  3rd India-Japan 2+2 Foreign and DefenseMinisterial Meeting emphasized the importance of security dialogue and maritime cooperation.
•  Economic Ties
  1. Japan is a key partner in India's economic transformation, particularly in infrastructure. Projects like the Mumbai-AhmedabadHigh-Speed Rail  and  Delhi-Mumbai IndustrialCorridor  receive significant Japanese investment.
  2. Bilateral trade between India and Japan is robust, with India exporting goods like petroleum products and machinery, while importing electronics and chemicals from Japan.
• Technological and Digital Partnership 
  1. Launched in 2018, the  India-Japan Digital Partnership  focuses on start-ups, with significant Japanese venture capital invested in Indian tech firms.
• Cultural and Historical Bonds
  1. The relationship is historically deep, dating back to the introduction of Buddhism  in Japan. This cultural connection forms a strong foundation for modern ties.
• Global Cooperation
  1. Both countries support each other’s candidacy for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council , highlighting shared interests in global governance.

Overall, the India-Japan partnership is flourishing across multiple dimensions, contributing to regional stability and global prosperity.

Views of Scholars

• Kanti Bajpai -India Japan Strategic Partnership for 21st Century

  Historically, India and Japan have not shared a close relationship. However, the rise of China has created a need for both countries to come closer. There are various strategies that India and Japan can adopt in response to the rise of China and why soft balancing is the best option for both countries at present.
  Strategies in response to the rise of China
  1. Hiding: This strategy involves staying out of the limelight and avoiding conflict. However, both Japan and India are geographically too close to China for this to be a viable option.
  2. Hedging: Hedging involves strategic engagement to deal with worst-case scenarios and pursuing economic engagement. However, there is limited scope for this strategy because China follows a mercantilist approach to trade.
  3. Bandwagoning: This means aligning with the rising power, in this case, China. While Japan was once part of China's empire, India was never a tributary. Bandwagoning is not a feasible option for India, as it would involve accepting China's position on territorial disputes.
  4. Balancing: Balancing involves countering the rising power through hard balancing (internal and external military capabilities) and soft balancing (non-military activities that complicate the choices of a militarily superior adversary, such as using legal instruments and creating public opinion).

According to Kanti Vajpayee, soft balancing is the best option for both India and Japan at this stage, as it avoids the risk of confrontation.

• Views of Rajeshwari Rajagopalan

  Traditionally, India has resisted taking sides in great power competition. However, in the era of uncertainty driven by shifting Asian balance of power, strategic partnerships can improve room for maneuverability. Asia is witnessing a strategic flux where power is diffused, and demarcation of geopolitical and geo-economic interests are blurred. It is essential for New Delhi to not adopt a zero-sum approach and objectively contextualize the India-Japan strategic partnership amidst the fast-changing variables of emerging strategic equations.

In conclusion, as the power dynamics in Asia continue to shift, India and Japan must navigate their strategic partnership carefully, taking into account the changing landscape and the rise of China. For now, soft balancing appears to be the best approach as it allows both countries to manage their relationships with China without provoking direct confrontation.

India-China Relations

India and China have had a complex relationship since their official strategic partnership in 2003. This partnership aimed to challenge US hegemony and create a multipolar world order. Both nations have cooperated in multilateral institutions like the IMF, World Bank, WTO, and on climate change. However, there have been several challenges and conflicts between the two nations, making China a considerable challenge for India's foreign policy makers.

China's Strategic Culture
China sees itself as the 'middle kingdom' and aspires to create a Sino-centric world order, especially in Asia. India, being a major power in the region, can challenge China's aspirations. Hence, China wants India to remain contained in South Asia.

Indian Scholars' Views on China
There are three schools of thought among Indian scholars regarding China:

• Idealists: Inspired by Tagore and Pandit Nehru, they talk about an Asian century.
• Realists: Led by Sardar Patel, they believe that China is expansionist and the only way to deal with it is to remain prepared for war.
• Pragmatists: Including Shyam Saran and C. Raja Mohan, they believe that China is both a challenge and an opportunity. They advocate for a policy of engagement wherever possible and containment wherever necessary.

India's China Policy: An Overview

• Nehruvian era: While Pandit Nehru was aware of the threat posed by China, he preferred appeasement as a better way for defense. This was imperative for India to stay away from the blocs and maintain its limited defense capabilities.
• 1962-1990: This phase is known as the cold peace, with no engagement with China after the 1962 war. Some attempts were made to break the ice, but they were unsuccessful.
• Towards the end of the Cold War: By the mid-1980s, India realized the need for new friends as the USSR was collapsing. India started the 'Look East' policy, and Rajeev Gandhi's visit to China in 1988 helped break the ice between the two countries.

India-China Relations Since the End of the Cold War
The US started looking at India as the ideal swing state to balance the rise of China. India's 'Look East' policy became a strategic initiative to contain China, as India sought to increase its presence in China's neighborhood.

Chinese Perception of India
China has historically viewed India as a supporter of imperialist powers and has never considered India as a mature country. The US has always had a role in India-China relations, even during the Nehruvian era.

The Basic Conflict Between China and India
India has acted as a barrier to China's expansion in the West, while the US and its allies have contained China in the East. Aksai Chin, a disputed territory between India and China, is crucial for China to maintain its connectivity between Tibet and Xinjiang. Hence, China sees India as a puppet of the US.

1962 Indo-China War

• The 1962 Indo-China war was a significant event that strained the relationship between the two countries. The war resulted in a huge loss of prestige for India in the developing world and reinforced the need for India to remain prepared for war with China.
• In conclusion, India-China relations have been complex and multifaceted, with strategic partnerships, engagements, and conflicts. It is essential for India to maintain a pragmatic approach, engaging with China where possible and containing it where necessary, to ensure a stable and peaceful relationship in the long run.

Reasons for the Indo -China War

The Indo-China War was primarily a result of a boundary dispute between India and China. The two countries used to be civilizational states with transitional zones, but the introduction of Western concepts of territory and the attempts by the British to fix Indian boundaries led to disputes 

• Eastern Sector: China claims Arunachal Pradesh as its territory and does not accept the MacMohan Line, which was the outcome of the Shimla Conference in 1914. China considers it an imperial boundary and has increased its demands on Arunachal Pradesh over time.

• Middle Sector: There is not much conflict in this sector, with the basic conflict being on Sikkim. In 2003, during Prime Minister Vajpayee's visit, China recognized India's sovereignty over Sikkim and opened the Nathu La pass for cross-border trade
• Western Sector: India accuses China of occupying 38,000 square miles of Indian territory, i.e., Aksai Chin since 1962. The two forces are currently divided at the Line of Actual Control (LAC). The British proposed two maps - the Johnson Line and the MacDonald Line - but China did not accept either. The issue is more significant in Aksai Chin because it is uninhabited, unlike Arunachal Pradesh.
• China's approach has been to offer a package deal: if India accepts Chinese sovereignty in Aksai Chin, China will accept India's sovereignty in Arunachal Pradesh. India, however, wants proper demarcation in each sector.

The status of Tibet is another factor that led to the war. India preferred a policy of appeasement, signing the Panchsheel Agreement in 1954 that recognized China's sovereignty over Tibet. However, China accused India of not upholding the agreement and supporting Tibetan insurgents, leading to tensions between the two countries.

Consequences of the 1962 War

The 1962 war resulted in a humiliating defeat for India and established a permanent rivalry between the two Asian giants. The war also pushed India towards a closer relationship with the United States and emboldened Pakistan to start the 1965 war. The conflict between China and Pakistan eventually led to the formation of an axis with the United States, compelling India to seek a quasi-alliance with the Soviet Union.

Current State of Indo-China Relations (2024)

• Border Disputes: The longstanding border tensions, particularly in Ladakh, remain unresolved. While some areas like Galwan and Pangong Tso have seen disengagement, key friction points such as Depsang and Demchok are still contentious.
• Trade Relations: Despite political strains, China became India's largest trading partner again in FY 2023-2024, with bilateral trade reaching $118.4 billion. India's efforts to reduce economic dependence on China have yet to significantly impact trade.
• Economic Engagement: India has started approving Chinese investments in selective sectors, particularly in electronics manufacturing, signaling a cautious reopening to economic engagement.
• Strategic Realignment: India is balancing its relations with China by joining initiatives like the US-led Minerals Security Finance Network (MSFN), which aims to secure critical mineral supply chains and reduce reliance on China.
• Diplomatic Engagements: There are signs of easing tensions, with both countries holding discussions to resolve disputes and enhance cooperation. The presence of China’s new ambassador in India, after an 18-month gap, marks a diplomatic reset.
• Challenges to Trust: While economic and trade interactions are increasing, the deep-seated distrust between the two nations remains, especially due to military stand-offs and strategic competition.

Conclusion

In conclusion, India's relationships with Russia, Japan, and China have evolved significantly over time, shaped by historical contexts, geopolitical changes, and strategic interests. The India-Russia partnership has remained strong despite challenges, while India-Japan relations have entered a phase of strong cooperation and strategic partnership. On the other hand, India-China relations remain complex and multifaceted, requiring a pragmatic approach to balance cooperation and containment. As the geopolitical landscape continues to evolve, India must navigate these relationships carefully, maintaining open channels of communication, transparency, and adaptability to ensure stability and prosperity in the region.