Political Changes in Eastern Europe 1989-2001 | History Optional for UPSC (Notes) PDF Download

Introduction

• When the Iron Curtain fell in 1989, it marked a significant shift in the political landscape of the Eastern Bloc and the world. The German reunification saw the Federal Republic of Germany peacefully incorporate the German Democratic Republic in 1990.
• In 1991, key organizations such as COMECON, the Warsaw Pact, and the Soviet Union itself were dismantled. This period also witnessed several European nations, previously part of the Soviet Union, regaining their independence. These included Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine, and the Baltic States of Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia.
• Additionally, Czechoslovakia underwent a peaceful split in 1993, resulting in the formation of the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Many countries from this region, such as Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia, later became members of the European Union.

Breakup of Czechoslovakia

• Czechoslovakia split peacefully into the Czech Republic and Slovakia in 1993, an event sometimes referred to as the Velvet Divorce, symbolizing the smooth transition from a federal state to two independent nations.
• The Czech Republic and Slovakia had emerged as the Czech Socialist Republic and the Slovak Socialist Republic in 1969 within the framework of Czechoslovak federalization.

Reasons for Separation

Mutual Historical Grievances:

• The Slovaks were critical of the patronizing attitudes of Czech leaders and their reluctance to grant Slovakia more autonomy, despite benefiting from Czech economic and educational support.
• The Czechs resented Slovakia's 1939 betrayal when Slovakia established a Nazi-backed state and criticized Slovaks for not showing enough gratitude after World War II.
• During communism, many Czechs felt they were subsidizing Slovakia's development and viewed the 1968 federation creation unfavorably.

Political Asymmetry:

• The asymmetrical nature of the federation, with the Slovak Communist Party having no Czech counterpart, created political imbalance.

Incompatible Political Spectrums:

• Post-communism, the Czech Republic and Slovakia developed divergent political spectrums, making federal governance difficult.

Czech and Slovak Nationalism:

• Slovak nationalism emerged from a weaker historical statehood experience, while some Czech nationalists saw Slovakia as an economic burden.

Lack of Democratic Experience:

• Both nations were still learning the basics of democracy, leading to rushed decisions and a lack of exploration of democratic solutions.

Religious Differences:

• A subtle difference in religious beliefs, with most Czechs being irreligious and most Slovaks being Roman Catholics, also contributed to the rift.

The Process of Dissolution:

• The dissolution of Czechoslovakia was a peaceful and well-organized process, avoiding the violent upheavals seen in countries like Yugoslavia.
• The main debate during the process was whether to hold a referendum on the split.
• Ultimately, the decision not to hold a referendum proved beneficial, as a single federal referendum would have been ineffective given the unequal sizes of the two nations.
• The Federal Assembly successfully approved the dissolution, and both sides agreed on a civilized division of federal assets and the split of the monetary union.

After Breakup

Impact on Regional Cooperation:

• The split initially harmed regional cooperation, with the Visegrad grouping being downgraded.
• Slovakia's shift towards a semi-authoritarian regime negatively impacted regional cooperation, causing the other Visegrad countries to distance themselves from Slovakia in their efforts to join NATO and other organizations.

Impact on International Stature:

• Post-split, the Czech Republic was viewed as a diminished version of Czechoslovakia, while Slovakia gained visibility as a new international player.
• The Czech Republic struggled with its international stature, particularly in relations with Germany and Austria regarding the expulsion of Sudeten Germans after WWII.
• The Czech Republic's international reputation improved significantly after joining NATO in 1999.

Ethnicity:

• After the split, the Czech Republic became nearly ethnically homogenous, while Slovakia emerged as Central Europe's most multicultural and multiethnic country.
• Slovakia faced challenges with its minority groups under nationalist and semi-authoritarian governance, but the need for coexistence among various ethnic groups ultimately strengthened its political culture.
• The role of the European Union was crucial and positive in the aftermath of the split. EU integration helped both nations turn what could have been a failure into a success.

Democratization and Transition in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union

• The transition from communism to democracy in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union during the late 1980s and early 1990s was marked by significant political and social changes. This period saw the dismantling of authoritarian regimes, the establishment of democratic governance, and the shift towards market-oriented economies.
• The processes of democratization varied across countries, influenced by historical, cultural, and political contexts. Some nations like Poland and Hungary experienced relatively peaceful transitions, while others like Ukraine and Belarus faced more tumultuous paths.
• Key factors that facilitated democratization included popular protests, the weakening of Soviet control, and the willingness of communist leaders to engage in reform. The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 symbolized the collapse of communist dominance and inspired movements across the region.
• Western support, through organizations like NATO and the European Union, played a crucial role in stabilizing and guiding these transitions. Countries like Bulgaria, Romania, and the Baltic states sought integration into Western institutions to solidify their democratic and economic reforms.
• Despite the challenges, including economic hardships and social upheavals, the period marked a significant shift towards freedom and democracy in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, setting the stage for the development of diverse political systems and economies.

1. Bulgaria:

• Todor Zhivkov’s Leadership: From 1954, Todor Zhivkov was Secretary General of the Bulgarian Communist Party.
• Gorbachev’s Influence: Gorbachev's reforms in the late 1980s inspired liberalization in Bulgaria, leading to more freedom and democratic expectations.
• 1989 Demonstrations: Demonstrations in Sofia began focusing on ecological issues but expanded to call for political reforms.
• Political Changes: The Communist Party renounced its claim to power in February 1990, leading to Bulgaria's first free elections in June 1990, won by the Bulgarian Socialist Party.
• Constitution and Governance: The new Constitution in July 1991 established a system with a President, Prime Minister, and Cabinet.
• Initial Struggles: The new system struggled initially with living standards and economic growth, which were initially lower than under Communism.
• 1997 Reforms: A reform package in 1997 restored economic growth, but living standards remained low until significant improvements after 2001.
• International Integration: Bulgaria joined NATO in 2004, participated in the War in Afghanistan, and became an EU member in 2007 despite ongoing concerns about corruption.

2. Hungary:

• Calm Democratization: Amid the collapse of communist systems in 1989, Hungary experienced a relatively peaceful transition to democracy.
• Round Table Talks: Reformers in the Communist Party engaged in talks with opposition leaders, paving the way for a multi-party democracy and a free market.
• First Free Elections: The Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF), led by Jozsef Antall, won the 1990 elections, advocating for gradual market reforms.
• Economic Challenges: The early 1990s saw declining living standards due to the removal of state subsidies and necessary fiscal austerity.
• Shift in Power: The Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) won in 1994, followed by Fidesz, a center-right party, gaining prominence in 1998.
• NATO Membership: Hungary joined NATO in 1999 and participated in the Yugoslav Wars.
• EU Membership: Hungary negotiated EU membership, with 85% support in a 2003 referendum, and officially joined on 1 May 2004.

3. Poland:

• Economic Decline and Strikes: In 1988, strikes erupted due to the government's failure to prevent economic decline.
• Recognition of Solidarity: The government recognized the Solidarity union, leading to the Round Table talks in 1989.
• Round Table Agreement: This legalised Solidarity and set the stage for partly free elections on 4 June 1989.
• Solidarity’s Victory: Solidarity candidates won all contested seats in the Sejm and 99 out of 100 Senate seats.
• Formation of Government: Tadeusz Mazowiecki, a Solidarity supporter, became Prime Minister on 19 August 1989.
• End of One-Party Rule: The Parliament ended over 40 years of one-party rule, with Mazowiecki as the first non-Communist Prime Minister.
• Constitutional Changes: The constitution was amended to rename the country and the communist party dissolved in 1990.
• Shock Therapy: A shock therapy program transitioned Poland to a market economy, with significant social and economic challenges initially.
• Membership in International Groups: Poland joined the Visegrad Group, NATO in 1999, and the EU on 1 May 2004.
• Schengen Area: Poland joined the Schengen Area in 2007, facilitating free movement within most of the EU.

4. Romania:

• Post-Revolution Transition: The National Salvation Front (NSF), led by Ion Iliescu, initiated partial democratic and free market reforms.
• Golaniad Protests: In April 1990, protests against the NSF’s election results escalated into the violent Golaniad, leading to the June 1990 Mineriad.
• Political Fragmentation: The NSF’s disintegration led to the formation of various political parties, including the Social Democratic Party and the Democratic Party.
• Western Integration: Post-Cold War, Romania aligned more closely with Western Europe and the U.S., joining NATO in 2004 and the EU in 2007.
• Economic Growth: In the 2000s, Romania experienced significant economic growth, at times labeled “the Tiger of Eastern Europe.”

5. Slovenia:

• Independence and Recognition: Slovenia adopted a new constitution in December 1991 and was recognized as an independent state by the European Union in January 1992 and by the United Nations in May 1992.
• EU and NATO Membership: Slovenia joined the European Union and NATO in 2004.

6. Baltic Nations:

• Estonia: During the "Singing Revolution" in 1989, a human chain called the Baltic Way symbolized the desire for independence. Estonia declared independence on August 20, 1991, and the Soviet Union recognized it on September 6, 1991. Estonia joined NATO and the EU in 2004.
• Latvia: Large demonstrations in 1987 and 1988, led by the Popular Front of Latvia, advocated for independence. The Supreme Soviet recognized Latvia's independence on May 4, 1990. After a failed coup in January 1991, Latvia restored full independence on August 21, 1991, and joined NATO and the EU in 2004.
• Lithuania: With perestroika and glasnost, the Sąjudis movement emerged, leading to Lithuania's declaration of independence on March 11, 1990. After initial Soviet attempts to suppress this, Lithuania gained wide recognition and joined the UN on September 17, 1991. Lithuania joined NATO and the EU in 2004 and the Schengen Agreement in 2007.

7. Ukraine:

• Declaration of Sovereignty: On July 16, 1990, Ukraine's parliament adopted the Declaration of State Sovereignty, asserting self-determination and prioritizing Ukrainian law over Soviet law.
• Act of Independence: Following a failed coup attempt against Mikhail Gorbachev in August 1991, Ukraine's parliament adopted the Act of Independence on August 24, 1991.
• Referendum and Elections: A referendum and presidential elections on December 1, 1991, resulted in over 90% support for independence and the election of Leonid Kravchuk as the first President of Ukraine.
• Dissolution of the Soviet Union: Ukraine, along with Belarus and Russia, formally dissolved the Soviet Union and established the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).
• Economic Challenges: Ukraine faced a severe economic decline, losing 60% of GDP and experiencing high inflation from 1991 to 1999.
• Stabilization and Growth: The economy stabilized by the late 1990s, with the introduction of a new currency in 1996 and steady growth after 2000.
• Political Developments: The 1996 Constitution established Ukraine as a semi-presidential republic, though President Leonid Kuchma faced criticism for corruption and electoral fraud.
• Nuclear Disarmament: Ukraine undertook full nuclear disarmament, giving up the third-largest nuclear arsenal in the world.

8. Belarus:

• Declaration of Sovereignty: Belarus declared sovereignty on July 27, 1990, and changed its name to the Republic of Belarus on August 25, 1991, with Communist Party support.
• Dissolution of the Soviet Union: Stanislav Shushkevich, Belarus’s Supreme Soviet chairman, declared the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the formation of the Commonwealth of Independent States with Boris Yeltsin and Leonid Kravchuk on December 8, 1991.
• Constitution and Presidency: In March 1994, a national constitution was adopted, giving the President of Belarus prime ministerial powers. Alexander Lukashenko rose to prominence in the presidential elections of June and July 1994 and was re-elected in 2001, 2006, and 2010, criticized for his authoritarian governance.

9. Russia:

• Boris Yeltsin’s Presidency: In June 1991, Boris Yeltsin became the first directly elected President of the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic, which became the independent Russian Federation in December 1991.
• Economic Reforms: Following the Soviet Union's disintegration, extensive reforms, including privatization and market liberalization, were implemented under the "shock therapy" approach, leading to severe economic crises with significant GDP and industrial output declines between 1990 and 1995.
• Privatization and Corruption: Privatization transferred control from state agencies to individuals with government connections, resulting in capital flight and a drastic increase in poverty from 1.5% to 39-49% by mid-1993. The 1990s were marked by corruption, lawlessness, and violent crime, including armed conflicts in the North Caucasus.
• First Chechen War: Chechen separatist Dzhokhar Dudayev declared independence in 1991, leading to a conflict similar to the U.S. Vietnam War. Russian troops faced humiliating losses. The conflict ended with a ceasefire in 1996 and a peace treaty in 1997, but resumed in 1999.
• Second Chechen War: The rebellion was brutally suppressed by Vladimir Putin, who succeeded Yeltsin as President in 2000. High oil prices and a weak currency initially followed by increasing domestic demand and investment spurred economic growth for nine straight years, improving living standards and boosting Russia's global influence.

Breakup of Yugoslavia

Background

Yugoslavia, meaning the land of South Slavs, was formed after World War I when territories inhabited by Croats, Slovenes, and Bosnians, previously part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, united with the Kingdom of Serbia. Following World War II, Josip Broz Tito, who had played a crucial role in liberating Yugoslavia from Nazi occupation, organized the country into a federal union. Although Yugoslavia was nominally a communist state, it distanced itself from Soviet control in 1948, became a founding member of the Non-Aligned Movement in 1961, and adopted a more decentralized and less repressive form of governance compared to other Eastern European communist countries during the Cold War.
Yugoslavia was structured as a federal union comprising six republics and two provinces:

Six Republics:

• Serbia
• Croatia
• Slovenia
• Macedonia
• Bosnia & Herzegovina
• Montenegro

Two Provinces:

• Kosovo
• Vojvodina

Factors Leading to the Breakup of Yugoslavia

• Cultural and Religious Divisions: Differences in culture and religion among the ethnic groups were a significant factor.
• Memories of WWII Atrocities: Memories of the atrocities committed by all sides during World War II contributed to the tensions.
• Centrifugal Nationalist Forces: Nationalist movements within the republics began to gain strength.
• Death of Tito: Tito's death in 1980 marked the end of a unifying figure who had managed to keep the diverse republics together despite their differences.
• 1974 Constitution: This constitution allowed for the devolution of power from the federal government to the republics and autonomous provinces. It established a collective presidency and limited the federal government's control over economic, cultural, and political policies.
• External Factors: The collapse of communism in Eastern Europe in 1989, the unification of Germany in 1990, and the impending collapse of the Soviet Union destabilized Yugoslavia. As Eastern European countries transitioned to free elections and market economies, Western attention shifted away from Yugoslavia, reducing the economic and financial support necessary for its stability. The absence of a Soviet threat also diminished the incentives for unity.
• Role of Slobodan Milosevic: Milosevic, who became Serbia's president in 1989, exploited the weakening central authority and promoted Serbian ultra-nationalism, exacerbating conflicts in other republics. He revoked the autonomy of the provinces of Kosovo and Vojvodina.
• Democratization in Eastern Europe: The wave of democratization across Eastern Europe influenced Yugoslavia. In 1990, elections in Slovenia and Croatia led to non-communist parties gaining control of the state legislatures and governments.

Breakup of Yugoslavia

The breakup of Yugoslavia was a complex process that unfolded between 1990 and 1997, driven by strong nationalist sentiments and political turmoil. Following the death of communist leader Josip Tito and the collapse of communism, the country descended into chaos, with various ethnic groups vying for land and power.

Formation of New States:

1. Slovenia: In 1991, Slovenia declared independence. The Yugoslav National Army (JNA) briefly intervened but soon withdrew, effectively recognizing Slovenia's separation.
2. Croatia: Croatia also declared independence in 1991. The Serb minority in Croatia sought to establish its own independent territory and join Serbia, leading to violent clashes. The JNA intervened, initially claiming to separate the factions but quickly showing bias towards the Croatian Serbs.
3. Macedonia: Macedonia declared its independence following a referendum in September 1991. A U.S. peacekeeping and monitoring force was deployed to the border with Serbia to maintain order.
4. Bosnia-Herzegovina: In 1992, Bosnia-Herzegovina declared independence. The population was ethnically diverse, consisting of Muslim Bosniaks (44%), Orthodox Serbs (32.5%), and Catholic Croats (17%). This diversity led to a complex and violent conflict known as the Bosnian War. The war involved Bosnian Serbs, supported by Serbia, fighting against Bosnian Muslims and Croats.

International Intervention:

5. During the Bosnian War, there were numerous instances of ethnic cleansing, particularly against Muslims in Serb-controlled areas. The Srebrenica massacre, where over 8,000 Bosnian Muslims were killed by Serbian forces in July 1995, became a symbol of the atrocities committed during the war.
6. In February 1994, NATO conducted its first military action by shooting down four Serbian aircraft violating a no-fly zone. Later, in May 1995, NATO carried out airstrikes against Serbian positions.
7. Approximately 100,000 people lost their lives during the Bosnian War, and over 2.2 million were displaced. The conflict ended with the signing of the Dayton Accords in 1995, sponsored by the United States, which outlined a peace agreement for Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Formation of Successor States:

• In 1992, Serbia (including Vojvodina and Kosovo) and Montenegro formed the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia as the successor state to the old Yugoslavia.
• In 2006, Montenegro and Serbia separated into independent states.
• Kosovo declared its independence from Serbia in 2008. The path to Kosovo's independence was marked by violence in 1998-1999, when the majority-Albanian population sought to break away from Serbia. NATO intervened with a bombing campaign, leading to the establishment of a NATO-led peacekeeping force and UN administration over the province.

In 2003, a state union of Serbia (including Vojvodina) and Montenegro was created. Ultimately, the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia disintegrated into seven new states: Slovenia, Croatia, Macedonia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo, Serbia, and Montenegro, following a bloody civil war.