Recent Development in India's Foreign Policy - 3 | PSIR Optional for UPSC (Notes) PDF Download

Afghan – a ‘Graveyard of empires’

Afghanistan is often called the "Graveyard of Empires" because many powerful nations have struggled and failed there.

Historical examples include:

• Alexander the Great faced difficulties in Bactria, part of present-day Afghanistan.
• The Soviet Union disintegrated partly due to its failed invasion of Afghanistan.
• The decline of US dominance began with challenges in Afghanistan.
• There is a growing belief that it is hard to escape the problems associated with Afghanistan.
• Today's situation in the United States reflects the ongoing challenges and complexities related to Afghanistan.

History of India-Afghan relations

Ancient Connections and Alliances:

• Relations between the people of Afghanistan and India date back to the Indus Valley Civilisation.
• After Alexander the Great's brief occupation, the region of present-day Afghanistan came under the control of the Seleucid Empire.
• In 305 BCE, the Seleucids ceded much of Afghanistan to the Indian Maurya Empire as part of an alliance treaty.
• The Mauryans brought Buddhism from India and controlled the area south of the Hindu Kush mountains.

Medieval Invasions and Migrations:

• From the 10th century to the mid-18th century, northern India faced invasions from various groups based in present-day Afghanistan, including the Ghaznavids, Khaljis, Mughals, and Durranis.
• During these periods of turmoil, many Afghans began immigrating to India due to political unrest in their homeland.

Khan Abdul Ghaffar Khan and Indian Independence:

• Khan Abdul Ghaffar Khan, an Afghan leader, played a significant role in the Indian independence movement.
• He was an active supporter of the Indian National Congress, advocating for India's freedom from British rule.

India-Afghanistan Relations – Strategic, Economic, and Security Interests

India-Afghanistan: Strategic interests

• India aims to maintain Afghanistan as a friendly state to monitor Pakistan and influence its activities.
• India's interest in Afghanistan goes beyond Pakistan-centric concerns, reflecting its aspiration to be seen as a regional power.
• Pakistan tries to block India's opportunities in Afghanistan.
• Islamic fundamentalism in Pakistan and Afghanistan negatively impacts India's social fabric, similar to how Hindu fundamentalism in India is triggered by these external factors.
• Historically, Afghanistan has been a center of great power rivalries, such as between the Persian and Mughal Empires in medieval times and Russia and Britain during colonial times.

India-Afghanistan: Economic interests

• Afghanistan has a mineral wealth of about $1-3 trillion of Iron ore, Lithium, Chromium, Natural Gas, Petroleum etc.
• Safeguarding Indian investments and personnel in Afghan is utmost important to India as Indian investment in Afghan amounts to about $3bn.

India-Afghanistan: Security interests

• In the 1990s, India encountered significant security challenges from the Taliban in Afghanistan.
• Pakistan has been involved in supporting various militant groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba, Harkat-ul-Mujahideen/Harkat-ul-Ansar, and Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami, which operate against India. Many of these groups have received training in Afghanistan, with different levels of connection to the Taliban and al-Qaeda.
• India is determined to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a safe haven for terrorists once again. The spread of radical ideologies and terrorism in the region poses a serious security threat to India.
• As Pakistan strengthens its influence in Afghanistan, it could potentially undermine India's achievements in the region, especially in Loya Paktia, by supporting various anti-India groups.
• The Golden Crescent region, which includes Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, is a concern for India, particularly regarding drug abuse issues in Punjab.
• The Islamic State has been using Afghanistan as a base in Asia, especially as it faces challenges in Iraq and Syria.

History of Indian engagement in Afghan post Independence

• Early Engagement: India sought to establish its presence in Afghanistan soon after gaining independence in 1947.
• Friendship Treaty: In 1950, India and Afghanistan signed a "Friendship Treaty," marking the beginning of strong bilateral ties.
• Support for Afghan Monarchy: India maintained robust relations with Afghan King Zahir Shah's regime, fostering close diplomatic ties.
• Pre-Soviet Invasion Cooperation: Before the Soviet invasion in 1979, India formalized agreements with pro-Soviet regimes in Kabul, demonstrating a commitment to Afghan development.
• Development Efforts: During the anti-Soviet jihad (1979-1989), India expanded its development activities in Afghanistan, focusing on industrial, irrigation, and hydroelectric projects.
• Challenges Under the Taliban: After the Taliban took control in the mid-1990s, India faced challenges in maintaining its presence and supporting anti-Taliban forces.
• Support for the Northern Alliance: India aimed to undermine the Taliban's power by supporting the Northern Alliance, working alongside regional partners like Iran, Russia, and Tajikistan.
• Post-2001 Strategy: Since 2001, India has relied on development projects and humanitarian assistance to strengthen its role in Afghanistan.

Debate on India’s role in Afghan

There is an ongoing debate among major players in Afghanistan regarding India's role in the country's reconstruction, especially considering the ongoing security competition between India and Pakistan.

Expanding India's Presence: Some advocate for increasing India's presence in Afghanistan through:

• Training: Enhancing Indian training programs for Afghan civilian and military personnel.
• Development Projects: Initiating and expanding development projects in Afghanistan.
• Economic Ties: Strengthening economic ties between India and Afghanistan.

Caution Against India's Involvement: Others caution against India's involvement, viewing the Indian-Pakistani competition in Afghanistan as a new "Great Game." They argue that Afghanistan's stability can only be achieved through a regional solution that addresses the longstanding Indo-Pakistan dispute over Kashmir.

Afghan History

Phase I – until the end of the cold war

Monarchy to Republic (1973-1978):

• The monarchy in Afghanistan, led by King Zahir Shah, lasted until 1973. It was overthrown by a coup led by Mohammed Daoud Khan, who declared Afghanistan a republic.
• Daoud Khan's rule was marked by repression, leading to widespread protests.

Saur Revolution and Communist Rule (1978-1992):

• In 1978, the protests culminated in the Saur Revolution, which established the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan under the People’s Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA).
• The PDPA's rule was marked by significant turmoil and unrest.
• To stabilize the regime, the USSR intervened in 1979, and the country was renamed the Republic of Afghanistan in 1987.

International Dynamics and Support:

• During this period, India maintained strong diplomatic and cultural ties with the Afghan regime and was the only South Asian nation to recognize the Soviet-backed government.
• In contrast, the United States and Pakistan collaborated to undermine the communist government in Afghanistan, particularly after the Iranian Revolution in 1979, which shifted Iran away from US influence.

Soviet-Afghan War and Aftermath:

• The Soviet intervention lasted from 1979 to 1989. The Mujahideen, a coalition of seven Afghan resistance groups supported by Pakistan, eventually toppled the communist regime in 1989.
• After the Soviet withdrawal, India initially recognized the Mujahideen government but continued to support the government of Najibullah with humanitarian aid.

Taliban to power

Background

• After the Mujahideen government came to power with the support of the US and Pakistan, it was made up of various warlords. This led to infighting and a law and order crisis in the country.
• During this time, President Najibullah became pro-India, which caused Pakistan to promote the Taliban as an alternative.

Who Are the Taliban?

• The term "Taliban" means "students."
• The Taliban are refugees from the Afghan civil war, primarily located in North-West Frontier Province (NWFP), Pakistan. They were educated in madrasas funded by Saudi Arabia and were indoctrinated with Wahhabism-Salafism.
• Wahhabism is a puritanical movement within Islam that advocates for Shariah law.

Rise to Power

• After the fall of the Mujahideen government, India and the international community supported the coalition government that took over. However, relations deteriorated with the outbreak of another civil war, which eventually brought the Taliban to power.
• The Taliban regime was recognized only by Pakistan,Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
• The Taliban's destruction of the Bamiyan Buddha monuments provoked outrage and protests in India.
• In 1999, the hijacked Indian Airlines Flight 814 landed in Kandahar, Afghanistan, and the Taliban were suspected of supporting the hijackers.
• Consequently, India became a key supporter of the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance.

Phase II – since the end of the cold war

India tried to repair the relations since the 1990s. But the emergence of the Taliban with Pakistan’s support limited India’s options. India continued to support anti-Taliban forces in Afghanistan.

The war in Afghan (2001-present)

Post-Cold War Changes and the US War on Terror:

• After the Cold War, regional dynamics shifted, leading to the US war on terror in 2001 and the subsequent defeat of the Taliban in Afghanistan.
• The US initiated military action in Afghanistan in 2001 with the stated goals of dismantling al-Qaeda and removing the Taliban from power to prevent Afghanistan from being a safe haven for terrorists.
• Following the 9/11 attacks, the US demanded the extradition of Osama bin Laden from the Taliban. When the Taliban refused, the US launched its military campaign in Afghanistan, supported by the Northern Alliance, which had been fighting the Taliban since the 1990s.
• Countries like India and Russia joined the US in the fight against the Taliban. The Taliban was eventually ousted from power but regrouped in Pakistan.
• India saw an opportunity to re-establish its presence in Afghanistan and began contributing to reconstruction and nation-building efforts, including projects like the Zaranj–Delaram road, the Salma dam, and the construction of the Afghan parliament.

Shift in US Focus and Taliban Resurgence:

• After the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, the focus shifted away from Afghanistan, leading to a resurgence of the Taliban, who regrouped from hideouts in Pakistan.
• The US has been trying to withdraw from Afghanistan, but the conflict has continued without a clear end.
• Recent US-Taliban talks in Doha indicated progress, with an agreement on key issues such as the withdrawal of US troops and the Taliban’s commitment to prevent terrorist activities from Afghan soil.

The Taliban's Central Role in the Peace Process:

• From 2001 to the present, the Taliban has become a central figure in the Afghan peace process, recognized by major players like the US, Russia, and China.
• Pakistan’s Diplomatic Victory Pakistan’s influence over the Taliban has been seen as a diplomatic victory, while India’s role in the peace process has diminished.

Pakistan’s policy on Afganistan

1. India's involvement in Afghanistan increases Pakistan's sense of insecurity and fear of encirclement.
2. Pakistan, facing internal ethnic conflicts and the challenge of nation-building, is particularly sensitive to any foreign influence in the region.
3. The presence of India in Afghanistan is viewed by Pakistan as a direct threat, exacerbating its fears of greater Pashtun nationalism and regional instability.
4. Pakistan's desire for strategic depth in Afghanistan stems from its goal of ensuring that the Afghan government is closely aligned with its interests, limiting any external influence, especially from India.
5. Ethnic tensions within Pakistan, such as those between Punjabis and Sindhis, and the historical context of the Durand Line, contribute to its complex national identity and security concerns.
6. Pakistan's fear of a greater Pashtunistan, with Pashtun regions in both Pakistan and Afghanistan uniting, drives its aggressive stance towards Indian involvement in Afghanistan.
7. The ongoing ethnic conflicts, such as Shia-Sunni and Baluch issues, further complicate Pakistan's internal stability and heighten its sensitivity to external influences like India's presence in Afghanistan.
8. Pakistan's perception of India as a threat in Afghanistan is not just about territorial integrity but also about the broader implications for its national unity and security.

Indian policy on Afghanistan

Afghanistan: India's Natural Partner:

• Afghanistan is seen as a natural partner for India, not just to counterbalance Pakistan, but also to support India's energy and economic interests.
• Indian policy in Afghanistan reflects a tension between ambitions for a greater role in the region and the realities of its limitations.

Historical Context:

• In 2011, India became the first country to sign a strategic partnership agreement with Afghanistan, moving beyond previous limitations set by the U.S.
• India has consistently maintained that its relationship with Afghanistan is independent of Pakistan.

Tripartite Relationship:

• India argues that the relationships between India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan are mutually independent.
• During the 1965 and 1971 wars, Afghanistan remained non-committal and did not support India.
• On the Kashmir issue, Afghanistan has not publicly backed India.
• India has not engaged in the debate over the Durand Line.

Military Cooperation:

• In 2018, India made a significant move by gifting a Mi-25 attack helicopter to Afghanistan, marking the first instance of India providing offensive military capability to Afghanistan.
• This delivery was sensitive due to Pakistan's objections.
• Under the agreement, India will also provide training for Afghan defense personnel on operations.

US policy on Afghanistan

• US Reliance on Pakistan: The US believes it needs Pakistan's help to address the situation in Afghanistan due to Pakistan's geographical closeness to Afghanistan.
• Distrust of Pakistan: At the same time, the US is suspicious of Pakistan's dual role in supporting both the US and the Taliban simultaneously.
• Impact on India’s Role: This inconsistency in US policy has made it difficult for the US to determine the appropriate extent of India's involvement in Afghanistan.
• India’s Reconstruction Efforts: India's reconstruction program in Afghanistan is seen as problematic by the US because it could potentially provoke Pakistan.

Under the Obama government

• Focused on regional diplomacy and increasing the number of troops in Afghanistan.
• Aimed to gradually reduce U.S. forces starting in 2011, with a plan for Afghan forces to take over security by 2014.
• However, the Taliban intensified their attacks, revealing the weaknesses in the Afghan military's ability to manage security on its own.

Under Trump government

Trump's Position on Afghan War:

• Donald Trump believed that the Afghan war should be ended as soon as possible.
• However, he also warned that a rushed withdrawal could create a dangerous vacuum, given the complex ground situation with terrorist groups like ISIS and al-Qaeda gaining ground in Afghanistan.

Troop Increase and New Policy:

• Trump followed Obama's policy of a modest increase in troops.
• He also initiated a New Afghan policy to address the evolving situation.

New Afghan strategy of US

Military Commitment Without a Deadline:

• The United States has made a long-term military commitment to Afghanistan without setting a specific deadline for withdrawal.

Pakistan's Role Acknowledged:

• The U.S. openly acknowledges Pakistan's role in providing sanctuary to militant groups operating in Afghanistan.

India's Role in Stabilizing Afghanistan:

• India's contributions to stabilizing Afghanistan are recognized as part of the new U.S. policy.

U.S. Policy Shift:

• The U.S. policy towards Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India now integrates India's economic assistance into its own strategy for Afghanistan.

Conditional Aid to Pakistan:

• The U.S. has withheld aid to Pakistan until it takes action against terrorist groups. However, China has supported Pakistan by highlighting its own struggles with terrorism.

Indian Afghan Strategy:

• During a visit to the U.S., Indian Defense Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented India's strategy for Afghanistan, which includes:
• No Indian military presence on the ground.
• Economic assistance and capacity building.
• Signing a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Afghanistan to train its police force.

Countering Pakistan's Claims:

• India's strategy counters claims made by Pakistan's Prime Minister that India has no political or military role in Afghanistan.

Trump's Policy Shift:

• President Donald Trump has come to terms with Pakistan's central role in the Afghan peace process. He announced plans to withdraw U.S. troops from Afghanistan unilaterally.

U.S.-Taliban Framework Deal:

• A framework deal was signed between the U.S. and the Afghan Taliban in Doha, outlining a timetable for U.S. withdrawal.

Strategic Blind-Spot for India:

• The U.S.'s expedited withdrawal plan has limited its options and left India in a difficult position regarding its strategy in Afghanistan.

Regional Powers

China

China's Evolving Role in Afghanistan:

• China is becoming more involved in Afghanistan through investment, economic support, and humanitarian aid, although it is not yet a major player.
• This increased engagement is driven by China's concerns about security deterioration in Afghanistan and its desire to benefit from a reconstructed Afghanistan.
• Afghanistan's strategic location between Central and South Asia, along with its vast natural resources, makes it attractive to China.
• China is focused on ensuring stability in Afghanistan to protect its border province Xinjiang, safeguard its investments in Central Asia, and support its One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative.
• Beijing is cautious about potential links between its Muslim minorities in Xinjiang and the Taliban or other Islamist groups in Afghanistan.
• While reluctant to assume a security role in Afghanistan, China has been active in diplomatic efforts to promote the Afghan peace process.
• China participates in talks with Afghanistan, the US, and Pakistan (Quadrilateral Coordination Group) and facilitates peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban.
• China's role as a mediator and confidence-builder is important, as its influence helps keep Pakistan engaged peacefully.
• Afghanistan needs long-term and sustainable support, which China can provide through initiatives like OBOR.
• There are opportunities for China to collaborate with other countries present in Afghanistan on joint infrastructure projects and training for Afghans.
• India and China agreed on joint projects in Afghanistan during the Wuhan summit in 2018.

Iran

Iran's Perspective on Stability in Afghanistan:

• Just like India, Russia, China, and the U.S.,Iran also desires a stable and strong leadership in Afghanistan.
• The 1979 Iranian Revolution is seen as a significant event that set the stage for instability in Afghanistan. This revolution led to two major developments:
• Shift in Influence: Iran's revolution pushed it out of American influence. In response, the U.S. intervened in Afghanistan to counter Soviet influence, which eventually led to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979.
• Sectarian Tensions: The revolution strengthened the Shia sect in Iran. This shift alarmed Sunni-majority countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, prompting them to support Wahhabism-Salafism and, by extension, the Taliban.
• Opposition to the Taliban: Since Saudi Arabia was promoting Wahhabi Islam through the Taliban, Iran opposed the Taliban and supported its overthrow in 2001.
• Shift in Alliances: As U.S.-Iran relations soured, Iran began to support the Taliban, viewing it as a buffer against U.S. presence near its borders.
• Economic Considerations: Despite facing severe economic sanctions, Iran seeks a stable Afghanistan as a vital trading partner. In 2017, Iran surpassed Pakistan to become Afghanistan's largest trading partner.

Russia

Russia's Involvement in Afghanistan:

• Russia has increased its involvement in Afghanistan over the years.
• In 2007, Russia established ties with the Taliban to address the issue of drug trafficking through Central Asia.
• A mutual concern about the Islamic State (IS) has brought the Taliban and Russia closer together.
• After the Syrian crisis, Russia is aiming to strengthen its influence in the region to enhance its global power status.

Peace conferences and processes

• Bonn Agreement 2001: This was the first international agreement aimed at establishing peace and reconciliation in Afghanistan.
• American Peace Efforts: Led by Zalmay Khalilzad, the U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation. Khalilzad has engaged in talks with various stakeholders, including Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the Taliban, with the goal of reaching a deal within six months. His appointment reflects the U.S. desire to withdraw from Afghanistan as quickly as possible.
• Moscow-led Consultations: Known as the Moscow-format consultations on Afghanistan, this process is notable for bringing the Taliban and Afghan representatives together for discussions, despite the lack of conclusive outcomes.
• Other Initiatives: Additional peace efforts include the Heart of Asia Conference and the Kabul Process, which also aim to foster stability and reconciliation in Afghanistan.

India’s stand in the Peace Conferences

• Afghan-led, Afghan-owned, Afghan-controlled: India believes that any peace conference regarding Afghanistan should be led, owned, and controlled by the Afghan people themselves.
• Participation of the Afghan Government: India emphasizes the importance of including the Afghan government in these discussions to ensure legitimacy and effectiveness.
• Wary of Talks with the Taliban: India is cautious about engaging in talks with the Taliban, particularly due to the problematic notion of 'good Taliban-bad Taliban' distinctions.

Recent Events

US and Russia's Shift on Afghan Peace Talks:

• The US and Russia have shifted their stance on peace in Afghanistan, now believing that major concessions to the Taliban are necessary for any chance of peace. This shift has placed the Taliban at the center of all peace discussions.
• Recent talks, such as those facilitated by Russia in Moscow in February 2019, show Taliban leaders sitting alongside mainstream Afghan politicians. Similarly, recent US-Taliban discussions in Qatar reflect this new focus.
• Both the US and Russia have chosen to avoid involving the Ashraf Ghani government in Kabul in their peace processes. They have also agreed to the Taliban's demand not to negotiate with the elected Afghan government at this stage.
• The success of these US and Russian peace processes heavily relies on cooperation from Pakistan, which continues to wield significant influence over the Taliban leadership.
• Current negotiations with the Taliban are not led, owned, or controlled by Afghans. The Taliban has not renounced violence or pledged loyalty to the Afghan constitution before entering these talks.
• For India, which has invested $3 billion in development assistance to Afghanistan over the past decade, the prospect of a Pakistan-backed regime in Kabul is concerning. With limited influence in this scenario, India is now engaging with China, Iran, and various Afghan figures, including former President Hamid Karzai, who is playing a crucial role in the US-Taliban discussions.
• India's goal is to safeguard its strategic and economic interests in Afghanistan while supporting the Kabul government's stance on the negotiations. Foreign policy experts suggest that India may need to consider reaching out to certain independent factions within the Taliban in the near future.

Trade and Connectivity between India-Afghan

India's Efforts to Enhance Transport Connectivity and Economic Collaboration with Central and South Asia through Afghanistan:

• India aims to improve transport connectivity and economic collaboration with Central and South Asia through Afghanistan.
• There is a land route through the Waga Atari route, but Pakistan does not allow India-Afghanistan trade through this route.
• India and Iran signed a transit agreement to facilitate the transportation of goods to landlocked Afghanistan.
• Indian investment in Chabahar port, located in southeastern Iran, will serve as a hub for the transportation of transit goods.
• India has constructed the Deleram-Zaranj highway in Afghanistan to enhance connectivity.
• India and Afghanistan have established two air corridors to facilitate bilateral trade.
• India assisted in the reconstruction of the Salma Dam in Herat province, Afghanistan.
• India also built a new Parliament complex for the Afghan government.
• An India-Afghanistan joint working group focuses on trade, commerce, and investment.
• India ratified the UN TIR (Transports Internationaux Routiers) Convention in 2017 to facilitate international road transport.
• TIR allows customs-sealed vehicles and containers to pass through countries without border inspections, potentially boosting trade between India and Afghanistan through Pakistan.
• Afghanistan and Pakistan are contracting parties of TIR.
• Under the Afghan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement, Afghanistan and Pakistan can use each other's territory for transit trade. However, Pakistan has not allowed India to use this agreement for transit.
• Afghanistan supports India's inclusion in the agreement, but Pakistan has rejected this proposition.

Conclusion

• Trump is the third US President attempting to end the Afghan war. However, experts believe that announcing a troop drawdown without concrete agreements from the Taliban is a strategic mistake. This could lead to instability in Afghanistan, affecting both India's interests and regional stability.
• The current US approach has been a diplomatic win for Pakistan, which will be crucial for implementing any interim deal due to its influence over the Taliban.
• The Taliban, aware of the US withdrawal deadline, are trying to extract maximum concessions from US negotiator Zalmay Khalilzad without offering significant concessions in return.
• As the US withdraws from Afghanistan, India needs to find ways to maintain its presence and influence. Despite being a key stakeholder, India feels marginalized in negotiations dominated by regional powers, especially Pakistan. Iran and Russia, once allies of India during the fight against the Taliban in the 1990s, now appear to have different priorities.
• India's development-oriented approach has garnered goodwill among the Afghan people, but this "soft power" strategy has its limits. Trump's recent criticism of India's role in Afghanistan highlights this challenge. There is a domestic consensus in India against military intervention, creating a dilemma between continuing soft power and considering hard power options.
• Trump's strategy of engaging with the Taliban without involving India raises concerns about the US's reliability as a strategic ally for India in the region.
• India's position of not engaging with the Taliban until it involves the Afghan government remains firm. However, it is crucial for India to stay informed about all negotiations to avoid being sidelined in the resolution process.
• Establishing strong communication channels between Indian intelligence agencies and all significant groups in Afghanistan, including the Taliban, is essential to protect Indian interests, development projects, and citizens.
• India should leverage its goodwill among the Afghan people and strengthen dialogues with regional and global stakeholders. It must emphasize that any negotiations with the Taliban should not undermine the achievements of the past two decades, such as constitutional democracy, rule of law, and the rights of women and minorities.
• General Bipin Rawat, India's army chief, stressed the importance of India being involved in the discussions surrounding Afghanistan. India needs to engage with the Taliban to safeguard its interests and reassess its policy in coordination with Russia and Iran, reminding them that yielding entirely to the Taliban's demands could compromise their own security.