Sansad TV: Population China vs India | Gist of Rajya Sabha TV / RSTV (now Sansad TV) - UPSC PDF Download

Analysis Part

• The analysis section explores the phenomenon of population explosion, which refers to a sudden increase in the number of individuals in a community. Currently, numerous countries worldwide are grappling with this issue, as the global population has experienced a significant surge over the past two to three centuries. India, previously a major contributor to the global population, is now witnessing a notable deceleration.
• Due to declining fertility rates in India, the country is reconsidering policies that previously encouraged families to limit their number of children to two. As estimated by the United Nations, the global population surpassed 8 billion on November 15, with China and India accounting for over one-third of the total. India itself approximates its population at 1.38 billion, slightly lower than the World Bank's estimate of 1.4 billion for China.
• According to the United Nations, India is projected to become the most populous country in 2023. However, recent data from the Indian government shows that the country's annual population growth has averaged 1.2% since 2011, compared to 1.7% in the previous decade. This trend suggests that further slowing is to be expected. The government report also indicates that India's total fertility rate (TFR), which measures the average number of children per woman, dropped to 2 during the latest assessment period (2019-2021) from 3.4 in 1992-93. The report highlights the need for the TFR to reach 2.1 for the population to sustain itself.
• As India invests in its younger population, it must also develop plans to address the needs of a growing proportion of older individuals in the future, emphasizing the importance of a demographic transition.

Challenges

• The challenges associated with the growing human population are numerous. With the global population reaching 8 billion, issues such as biodiversity loss, climate change, pollution, deforestation, water and food scarcity are all exacerbated by our ever-increasing numbers. Our impact on the environment is a consequence of both our consumption patterns and population size.
• Furthermore, the total fertility rate (TFR) exhibits significant variations across different socio-economic groups, with a concentration of higher rates among economically disadvantaged sections of society. This has implications for achieving sustainable development goals (SDGs) and addressing issues such as poverty, hunger, malnutrition, health, and education.
• Additionally, job creation is not occurring at the desired rate, and economic growth is uneven. Nurturing and leveraging population growth to maximize economic advantages within the limited timeframe available presents a significant challenge.
• One of the key challenges is elevating India's economic status from a low middle-income country to at least a high middle-income level.
• While the share of older people in the population is rising rapidly, growing by 70% from now to 2050, the overall population is projected to grow by only 56%. This highlights the need to address the specific needs and concerns of the elderly population.
• The aspirations of women and families have evolved over time, with a desire for fewer children. However, the lack of access to family planning services remains an obstacle. A report indicates that 13% of fertility in India is unwanted, underscoring the importance of addressing this issue.
• Ultimately, the real challenge lies in improving the quality of life, as 21% of the population aged 60 and above is afflicted with chronic morbidities.
• Furthermore, there is an unequal rate of population growth among different states within India.

Way Forward

• The solutions to population are proven, affordable and available: women’s empowerment, universal quality education, accessible healthcare and fairer shares of our world’s resources. What’s lacking is the honesty to acknowledge this elephant in the room, and the commitment to act.
• It is very necessary to create growth momentum, investment should be adequately made in key infrastructure areas, social infrastructure and that to particularly education, water, and health.
• Family planning is a preventive measure in bringing down maternal and child mortality rate.
• China and Japan have controlled their population by various measures, the same can be adopted by us according to our suitability.
• Proper healthcare facilities to women, education to girl child.

Conclusion

• Analysts believe that India’s growing population can be a double-edged swordand the country needs to put in place the right policies to maximize the potential of its people by enhancing the state of education, health and infrastructure, so that India figures at better in various human development rankings.
• It is imperative that policy-makers deal with the situation on multiple fronts.
• Universal education, value-added skills accretion and massive growth in employment in the formal sectors should be the key focus areas.
• Unfulfilled aspirations of the youth can quickly turn to frustration, leading to violent outbursts. There is also a need to engage with the youth and create an enabling environment for entrepreneurship.
• Failure to do so would not just mean a missed opportunity in terms of harnessing the demographic dividend, but the ensuing rise in unemployment and poverty could undermine the advances made on the economic front and foment societal upheaval.