The Hindu Editorial Analysis - 17th January 2024 | Current Affairs & Hindu Analysis: Daily, Weekly & Monthly - UPSC PDF Download

The geopolitics in the Bangladesh election results

Why in News?

Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina won the re-election for a fifth term.

• The main opposition, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), boycotted the polls.
• Western nations, including the US, UK, and EU, have urged Bangladesh to hold free, fair, and participatory elections.
• The BNP demanded elections under a caretaker government, which the government rejected.
• This election became a high-stakes arena because of several international interests–
  1. India’s buffer state priorities
  2. China’s Belt & Road vision
  3. Strategic interests of the United States
  4. Russian infrastructure interests.

Concerns Related to the Politico-Economic Sphere of Bangladesh

• Authoritarian Practices: The Awami League’s (AL) authoritarian measures, including arrests and harassment of opposition leaders, have fueled resentment among the masses.
• Corruption and Nepotism: Perceived corruption and nepotism within the AL have widened the gap between the government and the impoverished population.
• Islamist Influence: The AL encouragement of Islamist groups like Hefazat-e-Islam Bangladesh has created a toxic environment within the ruling party.
• Radicalization: Islamist organisations, through religious schools and mosques, have radicalised a significant portion of the population, especially the youth.
• Islamist Opposition: The Islamist parties, including Jamaat-e-Islami, Hefazat, and Islami Oikyo Jote, now fill the opposition space.
• Political Analyst’s Perspective: Political analysts argue that the AL’s crackdown on the BNP has inadvertently strengthened Islamist parties, which seek to implement strict Sharia laws and turn Bangladesh into an Islamic state.
• Economic Crisis: Falling forex reserves, currency depreciation, and mounting external debt have created a looming debt crisis.
• Chinese Loans: Much of the infrastructure development relies on high-interest loans from China.

Election in Bangladesh and India’s Interests

Security Interests

• A stable, prosperous and friendly Bangladesh is in India’s best interests.
• The previous BNP-led government was quite hostile to India — and provided a haven to numerous anti-India terrorist and militant groups.
• It allegedly also had links to Pakistan’s ISI.
• The Present Government’s crackdown on anti-India elements and counter-terrorism cooperation with India has single-handedly improved India’s overall security situation over the last decade.
• Bangladesh’s action resulted in the arrest of many top leaders of the NE insurgent groups like the ULFA and the National Democratic Front of Bodoland.
• Also, Given the deteriorating situation in Myanmar, it becomes even more important that India and Bangladesh remain close security partners.

Economic Interests

• Bangladesh has replaced Pakistan as the second-largest economy in the South Asian region.
• As per World Bank data, the GDP of Bangladesh was $460 bn in 2022, and Pakistan’s was $375 bn.
• In 2022-23, Bangladesh was the fifth largest export destination for Indian goods after the US, the UAE, the Netherlands, and China.
• It accounted for over 2.7 per cent of all Indian exports, worth $12.2 billion.

Regional Connectivity & Cooperation

• Protocol on Inland Water Trade and Transit (PIWTT), operational since 1972, permits the movement of goods over vessels from India through Bangladesh’s river systems on 8 specific routes.
• Under the present regime, Bangladesh facilitates efficient connectivity to India’s Northeast through overland transit and inland waterways.
• Securing sea lines of communication: Bangladesh strategically places nearby essential sea lanes. It can play a significant role in containing piracy in the Indian Ocean.
• Bangladesh is also crucial for economic integration within the subcontinent, especially since Pakistan refuses to support regional economic cooperation.
• Bridge to Southeast Asia: Bangladesh is a natural pillar of the Act East policy.
  • It can act as a ‘bridge’ to economic and political linkages with South East Asia and beyond.
  • Bangladesh is an essential component of BIMSTEC and BBIN initiatives.
  • Dhaka hosts the secretariat of The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), which connects Myanmar and Thailand.
• Beyond the subcontinent, India wants Bangladesh to become a fulcrum for regional cooperation in the Bay of Bengal littoral linking South and South East Asia.
• India’s friends, such as Japan, have invested heavily in Bangladesh.

Bangladesh-China Relations

• Bangladesh’s two-way trade with China exceeded $25 billion in 2022.
• Bangladesh aligns strategically with China, helping transform its landscape through mega projects.
• Chinese investments in BRI-financed infrastructure projects have surpassed $10 billion.
• Bangladesh has significant military relations with China, and it is the second-largest importer of Chinese arms.
• India, too, gave Bangladesh $500 million credit for defence imports.
• Bangladesh has granted port access to India and China, fostering modernisation in Mongla port under the banners of the BRI and Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Corridor (BCIM).
  • Pyra Port– A similar cooperative enhancement was undertaken, but India backed out due to the PPP being granted to a Chinese company.
  • There are around $450 million of Chinese investments into 1,845 MW of domestic power generation as of 2021.

Bangladesh-USA Relations

• Bangladesh has had tense relationships with the US and the UK, given their proximity to Pakistan and their damaging role in 1971.
• The present regime unsurprisingly views the US with tremendous distrust.
• The US has been relatively inconsistent regarding calling out authoritarianism. While the Americans seldom talk about democracy in Pakistan, they tend to bully Bangladesh.
• The US has begun to appreciate India’s interests in Bangladesh (After the G20 Summit) and is toning down its hostility toward Dhaka.