The Hindu Editorial Analysis- 17th July 2025 | Current Affairs & Hindu Analysis: Daily, Weekly & Monthly - UPSC PDF Download

A tectonic shift in thinking to build seismic resilience

Why in News?

 With increasing earthquake activity in India and globally, the Government of India needs to lead a national conversation on the strict enforcement of seismic safety codes. 

Introduction

The earthquake tremors felt in Delhi on July 10, 2025, were measured at 4.4 on the Richter Scale by the National Center for Seismology (NCS). These tremors serve as a crucial reminder of India’s vulnerability to seismic events. The epicenter of the quake was located about 20 km southwest of Delhi, at a shallow depth of 5 km. While the tremors did not cause significant damage, they exposed the fragility of Delhi’s infrastructure. Over 80% of the buildings in Delhi, particularly those constructed before 2000, do not comply with seismic safety standards.

The July 2025 earthquake in Delhi was part of a series of seismic events that have been occurring across Asia since March 2025. These events include a devastating 7.7 magnitude earthquake in Myanmar and Thailand, as well as additional tremors recorded in Tibet and Greece. There has also been recurring seismic activity near the India-Myanmar border. Given that India is situated on a highly tectonic zone, the need to enhance seismic resilience has become increasingly critical.

The Danger of Unpreparedness

Tectonic Cause

• India’s seismic risk is primarily due to the northward movement of the Indian Plate, which is colliding with the Eurasian Plate at a rate of 4–5 cm per year. This tectonic activity is responsible for the formation of the Himalayas.

Great Himalayan Earthquake Threat

• The region is overdue for a massive earthquake, estimated to be of magnitude 8 or higher. Such an event could impact over 300 million people across northern India, Nepal, and Bhutan.

Delhi’s Seismic Risk

• Delhi is located in Seismic Zone IV, which is considered a high-risk area. The Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) for this region is 0.24g.
• The city is situated close to a major tectonic boundary and is home to 33.5 million people, along with more than 5,000 high-rise buildings. Many of these structures do not comply with seismic safety codes.

Code Non-Compliance

• A significant number of buildings in Delhi and other vulnerable areas do not adhere to the IS 1893:2016 Code established by the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS). This code mandates features such as ductile detailing and shear walls to enhance earthquake resistance.

Historical Earthquakes

• Bhuj (2001):. devastating earthquake with a magnitude of 7.7, resulting in over 20,000 deaths.
• Nepal (2015):. 7.8 magnitude earthquake that caused widespread destruction and loss of life.

Seismic Zones in India

• India’s seismic zones range from Zone II to Zone V, with Zone V being the most seismically active.
• Zone V includes the northeastern states such as Manipur, Nagaland, and Mizoram, as well as the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

Recent Earthquakes in Zone V Regions

• Mandalay, Myanmar (March 28, 2025):. powerful earthquake with a magnitude of 7.7.
• Myanmar Border (May 17, 2025):. tremor measuring 5.2 on the Richter scale.

Tsunami Risk

• The Andaman and Nicobar Islands, located in Zone V, are at high risk for tsunamis due to subduction zone activity. This risk was highlighted by the 2004 tsunami disaster.

Himalayan Seismic Activity

• Tibetan Earthquake (May 12, 2025):. quake measuring 5.7 on the Richter scale, which caused tremors in Sikkim. This event underscores the ongoing seismic unrest in the Himalayan region.

Global Earthquake Indicators

• Greece (May 22, 2025):. 6.2 magnitude earthquake that, while not directly impacting India, reflects global tectonic instability. This global dynamic emphasizes the need for India to bolster its earthquake preparedness.

Greater Danger with Urbanization

East Delhi’s Vulnerability

• East Delhi is particularly at risk due to its rapid urbanization and the presence of older structures. Many buildings in this area are built on soil prone to liquefaction, which can amplify seismic shaking.
• Additionally, numerous high-rise buildings in East Delhi are poorly designed and lack the necessary seismic safety features, making them highly vulnerable to intense shaking during an earthquake.

Early Warning Systems and Awareness

• The IndiaQuake app, developed by the National Center for Seismology (NCS), provides real-time earthquake alerts to the public. However, the effectiveness of this early warning system is compromised by low public awareness and inadequate enforcement of seismic codes.

Lessons from Other Countries

• Bangkok: In Bangkok, the implementation of updated seismic codes since 2007 has significantly reduced earthquake damage. Despite a flat-slab collapse in 2025, the city’s preparedness mitigated potential losses.
• Myanmar: The 2025 earthquake in Myanmar resulted in high casualties and damage due to poor enforcement of seismic codes. This serves as a warning for India to strengthen its code compliance.

Global Seismic Activity

• Recent earthquakes in Greece, Indonesia, Chile-Argentina, and Ecuador (May 3, 2025) indicate a period of heightened global seismic activity. While these events are geographically distant, they underscore the need for India to enhance its earthquake preparedness and resilience.

Himalayan Seismic Gap

• The region has been accumulating stress since the 1905 Kangra earthquake and the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal. This buildup of stress indicates the likelihood of a significant seismic event in the Himalayan region, which poses a high risk to areas like Delhi.

Urgency for Code Enforcement

• There is an urgent need for India to strictly implement seismic codes, particularly in high-risk cities like Delhi. Retrofitting vulnerable structures to meet these codes is essential to enhance earthquake resilience.

Action Steps for Delhi

• Retrofitting: Older buildings in seismic zones should be retrofitted using steel jacketing to improve their earthquake resistance.
• Foundation Requirements: Deep pile foundations should be mandated for new constructions in seismic zones to provide better stability during earthquakes.
• Compliance Checks: The Delhi Development Authority should accelerate compliance checks to ensure that buildings meet seismic safety standards.

Measures for Guwahati (Zone V)

• Code Enforcement: Strictly enforce the IS 1893:2016 Code to ensure all constructions meet seismic safety requirements.
• Construction Restrictions: Avoid construction on the Brahmaputra floodplain, which is prone to liquefaction and other seismic risks.
• Base Isolation: Implement base isolation techniques for critical structures to enhance their earthquake resilience.

Bhuj Preparedness

• Retrofitting: Expand retrofitting efforts in Bhuj to strengthen older buildings against seismic activity.
• Community Preparedness: Build community disaster response teams to enhance local preparedness and response to potential earthquakes.

Strengthening Early Warning Systems

• The National Center for Seismology (NCS) should extend early warning systems to rural areas in Zone V to improve safety and preparedness beyond major urban centers. This will enhance the overall resilience of vulnerable regions.

Global Lessons in Seismic Resilience

• Concrete and Ductile Detailing: The use of high-strength concrete (30–40 MPa) with ductile detailing is a model for earthquake resilience. However, this approach is more suited to lower seismic zones (0.1g–0.2g) and may not be adequate for India’s Zone V, which faces much higher seismic forces.
• Warning from Myanmar: The severe damage caused by unreinforced masonry in Myanmar during the 2025 earthquake serves as a cautionary tale for India. It highlights the need to avoid similar neglect in building practices and to ensure that structures are designed to withstand seismic forces.
• Tailored Retrofitting: The Northeast’s soft soils and Kutch’s sandy basins require customized seismic strategies for retrofitting and construction. Experts estimate that India needs to invest ₹50,000 crore annually for nationwide retrofitting efforts to enhance earthquake resilience.
• No Room for Delay: With the increasing frequency of seismic activity in India and globally, there is no time to waste in improving earthquake preparedness and resilience.
• Government Leadership: The Government of India must take the lead in enforcing seismic codes, conducting public awareness campaigns, and investing in resilient infrastructure.
• Citizen Responsibility: Citizens should educate themselves about emergency preparedness, safe building practices, and evacuation plans to contribute to overall seismic resilience.

Conclusion

The Bhuj earthquake serves as a stark reminder of the catastrophic consequences of inadequate preparedness and the need for seismic resilience in India. The recent tremors in Delhi further emphasize the urgency of this issue. India must shift from a position of vulnerability to one of strength, prioritizing the enforcement of seismic codes, public awareness, and infrastructure resilience.

Some cheer

Why in News?

 India needs to expand its energy import sources to help keep its trade deficit low.

Introduction

India’s trade data for the first quarter of FY26 shows a mixed picture, with some growth in goods exports and a notable increase in services exports. While exports to the U.S. have increased significantly, the rising dependence on Russian crude oil presents potential risks. This data indicates both opportunities and vulnerabilities, underscoring the need for India to strategically diversify its export products and trade partnerships.

Mixed Signals in Q1FY26 and June 2025 Trade Data

Positive Signs:

• Merchandise exports to the U.S. saw a substantial increase of 23.5% in June 2025, reaching $8.3 billion. This marked the highest growth rate in 14 months.
• This increase was likely influenced by preemptive stocking in anticipation of the expected pause in “reciprocal tariffs” on July 9, which has now been extended to August 1.

Flat Overall Growth:

• Goods exports in June remained relatively stable at $35.14 billion, a slight decrease from $35.16 billion in June 2024.
• Quarterly growth in goods exports for Q1FY26 was minimal at 1.92%, totaling $112.17 billion.

Services Exports Help Narrow Trade Deficit

• The merchandise trade deficit widened year-on-year in Q1FY26, reaching $67.26 billion, up from $62.1 billion in Q1FY25.
• However, services exports experienced a significant increase of nearly 11%, rising to $98.13 billion from $88.46 billion in Q1FY25.
• This boost in services exports helped reduce the overall trade deficit by 9.4%, highlighting the consistent strength of India’s services sector.

Crude Oil Dependence and Emerging Risks

 Vulnerability in Exports:  Refined petroleum products constitute approximately 15% of India’s goods exports, which poses a significant vulnerability for the country. 

 Increased Dependence on Russian Crude:  India has recently surpassed China to become the largest importer of Russian crude oil, with Russia now accounting for 36% of India’s oil imports. 

•  Geopolitical Risks: 
•  This increasing reliance on Russian crude brings about geopolitical risks, especially in light of former U.S. President Trump’s threats of imposing 100% secondary tariffs on countries importing Russian crude. 

 Need for Diversification:  The current situation underscores the urgent need for India to diversify its fuel sources. This includes a greater focus on renewable energy and the electrification of transport to reduce dependence on any single source of crude oil. 

Sectoral Performance and Structural Shifts

Strong Growth Sectors: In June 2025, several sectors demonstrated robust year-on-year growth:

• Electronics: Increased by 46.93%
• Tea: Increased by 32.64%
• Meat, Dairy, and Poultry: Increased by 19.7%
• Marine Products: Increased by 13.33%

Flat Performance in Other Sectors: Non-petroleum and non-gems/jewellery exports exhibited mostly flat performance, indicating limited growth in these areas.

Importance of MSME Sector: The Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSME) sector, which accounts for 46% of India’s goods exports, requires targeted support to enhance its contribution to diversified merchandise trade.

High Stakes in U.S.-India Trade Negotiations

• U.S. as a Key Export Market: The United States remains India’s largest export destination, comprising 17.7% of total exports in FY25.
• Upcoming Trade Agreement: With only two weeks remaining and three more negotiation rounds anticipated before a ‘mini’ Bilateral Trade Agreement in autumn, India is at a critical juncture in trade discussions.
• Importance of Favorable Outcomes: Securing a favorable agreement is crucial for India to ensure long-term stability and growth in its export sector.

Conclusion

 To ensure balanced trade growth, India must leverage its strengths in the services sector, enhance non-oil merchandise exports, and provide targeted support to the MSME sector. As geopolitical uncertainties increase, it is vital for India to diversify its energy imports and secure a favorable trade agreement with the U.S. Sustained efforts in these areas will be essential for reducing trade deficits and achieving resilient, long-term economic growth.