The Hindu Editorial Analysis- 19th May 2023 | Current Affairs & Hindu Analysis: Daily, Weekly & Monthly - UPSC PDF Download

Why in News?

Global temperatures are likely to surge to record levels in the next five years, fuelled by heat-trapping greenhouse gases and a naturally occurring El Niño event, according to a ‘Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update’ issued by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). 

Highlights

• The average global temperature in 2022 was about 1.15°C above the 1850-1900 average.
• The cooling influence of La Niña conditions over much of the past three years temporarily reined in the longer-term warming trend.
• But La Niña ended in March 2023 and an El Niño is forecast to develop in the coming months. Typically,
• El Niño increases global temperatures in the year after it develops – in this case this would be 2024.
• There is a 98% chance of at least one in the next five years beating the temperature record set in 2016, when there was an exceptionally strong El Niño.
• There is 66% chance for one of the next five years temporarily breaching the 1.5 degree Celsius mark.

• The annual mean global near-surface temperature for each year between 2023 and 2027 is predicted to be between 1.1°C and 1.8°C higher than the 1850-1900 average.
• The chance of the five-year mean for 2023-2027 being higher than the last five years is also 98%.
• Arctic warming is disproportionately high.

• Predicted precipitation patterns for the May to September 2023-2027 average, compared to the 1991-2020 average, suggest increased rainfall in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia, and reduced rainfall for this season over the Amazon and parts of Australia.

• In addition to increasing global temperatures, human-induced greenhouse gases are leading to more ocean heating and acidification, sea ice and glacier melt, sea level rise and more extreme weather.
• The Paris Agreement sets to limit the global temperature increase in this century to 2 °C while pursuing efforts to limit the increase even further to 1.5 °C, to avoid or reduce adverse impacts and related losses and damages.
• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says that climate-related risks for natural and human systems are higher for global warming of 1.5 °C than at present, but lower than at 2 °C.

What is the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)?

• The WMO is an intergovernmental organization with a membership of 192 Member States and Territories.
• India is a member of WMO.
• It originated from the International Meteorological Organization (IMO), which was established after the 1873 Vienna International Meteorological Congress.
• Established by the ratification of the WMO Convention on 23rd March 1950, WMO became the specialized agency of the United Nations for meteorology (weather and climate), operational hydrology and related geophysical sciences.
• WMO is headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland.