The Hindu Editorial Analysis- 20th April 2024 | Current Affairs & Hindu Analysis: Daily, Weekly & Monthly - UPSC PDF Download

Israel, a Two-State Solution, Some Recent Perceptions

Why in News?

Recently, Iran conducted a series of air strikes on Israel by employing 200-300 drones and ballistic missiles.

• Relevance For Prelims: Discussion on the 2024 Iran Israel Conflict, United Nations involvement, Israel-Hamas Conflict dynamics, Evaluation of the United Nations' effectiveness in Conflict Resolution, United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Reformation, and the United Nations' ability to halt ongoing wars.
• Relevance For Mains: Analyzing the implications of the Iran Israel Conflict on India and the global scenario.

2024 Iran Israel Conflict- Why Iran Attacked Israel

• These attacks were carried out by Iran's para-military force "Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps" in retaliation to Israeli war jets targeting an Iranian consulate in Syria earlier this month.
• Iran called the attack Operation True Promise.

Arising Concern - A Possibility of an All-out War

Leaders from across the globe have strongly criticized the recent Iranian attack, emphasizing the urgent need for an immediate end to hostilities.

• Dependent on Israel's Response: In this critical situation, the outcome hinges on Israel's reaction to the direct assault by Iran. Any robust response from Israel could escalate tensions, potentially leading to a full-blown war that might entangle the United States.
• Involvement of Various Nations: The involvement of US and UK forces has already complicated the situation. Incidents such as the downing of Iranian drones over Jordan, Syria, and Iraq have heightened tensions. The US President has reiterated unwavering support for Israel's security, underscoring the gravity of the situation.
• Impact on Global Power Dynamics: If the conflict intensifies, the balance of power could be significantly impacted. Direct US intervention may become inevitable if the situation worsens, potentially leading to a broader and more complex conflict.
• UN Involvement and Reactions: The United Nations has urged both Iran and Israel to exercise restraint, warning of the looming threat of a full-scale direct conflict in the Middle East. At an emergency UN Security Council meeting, the Secretary-General emphasized the need to avoid further escalation, following recent mutual air attacks. Despite these warnings, both Iran and Israel have continued to trade accusations, further destabilizing the region.

Israeli-Iranian Conflict Escalation

• A strong Israeli response runs the risk of escalating tensions between the two nations, potentially leading to a full-blown war that could involve the United States.

International Involvement

• US and UK military forces have already become embroiled in the recent escalation, having intercepted Iranian drones in Jordan, Syria, and Iraq.
• The US President has reiterated his unwavering support for Israel's security.
• If the conflict intensifies, direct US involvement seems inevitable, significantly impacting the balance of power in the region.

United Nations Response

• The United Nations has urged both Iran and Israel to exercise restraint, highlighting the looming threat of a large-scale conflict in the Middle East.
• During an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, the UN Secretary-General cautioned against further escalation, following recent mutual air attacks.
• Despite UN appeals for peace, Iran and Israel have continued to trade accusations, each labeling the other as a threat to regional stability.

Iran Israel Conflict and Its Impact on the World

• The Secretary-General of the United Nations emphasized the importance of avoiding further escalation in the region during an emergency UN Security Council meeting, following recent mutual air attacks.
• Iran and Israel engaged in mutual accusations, each labeling the other as a threat to peace.

Economic Implications:

• High Oil Prices: The immediate impact will be increased oil prices. If tensions escalate, crude oil, which is already approaching six-month highs, might surpass $100 per barrel. This surge in prices can have far-reaching consequences on various sectors of the economy.
• Disruptions to Supply Chain: A full-scale conflict could lead to disruptions in the global supply chain. Iran's threat to close the Suez Canal would severely impact the transportation of goods, leading to delays and increased costs for businesses worldwide.
• Threat of High Inflation: The combination of heightened geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions poses a significant risk of high inflation. This situation could push inflation rates upwards, creating challenges for central banks trying to maintain economic stability.
• Global Economic Growth Concerns: The ongoing conflict raises concerns about global economic growth. If tensions persist, there is a risk that the global economic growth rate might fall below the 3.1% projected by the International Monetary Fund for 2024, affecting economies worldwide.

Challenge for International Diplomacy:

• Impact on Iran Nuclear Deal: The conflict between Iran and Israel could complicate ongoing talks related to the Iran nuclear deal. Escalations in tensions may hinder diplomatic efforts to reach a peaceful resolution, impacting regional stability.
• Peace Processes Disruption: Further escalation of the conflict could disrupt peace processes in the region. National security concerns may take precedence over diplomatic solutions, potentially leading to prolonged instability and conflict.

Impact on Global Political Alignments:

• Shifts in International Relations: The involvement of the US in supporting Israel may trigger shifts in international relations. Countries like Russia and China may align themselves with Iran, leading to geopolitical realignments and potential power dynamics changes.

Iran Israel Relations

• Both Israel and Iran play crucial roles in the region, and any escalation between them has the potential to disrupt regional stability. This could lead to a broader conflict involving countries like Syria, Lebanon, and Saudi Arabia.
• This conflict between Israel and Iran could have far-reaching consequences, impacting not only the two nations but also drawing in neighboring countries. The ramifications could extend beyond their borders.

The Significance of Israel and Iran

• Israel and Iran are key players in the Middle East, holding significant geopolitical importance.
• Israel's military capabilities and Iran's regional influence make them pivotal actors in the region's dynamics.

Potential Escalation and Implications

• If tensions between Israel and Iran escalate, it could have severe repercussions for regional peace and stability.
• Neighboring countries like Syria, Lebanon, and Saudi Arabia may find themselves entangled in a wider conflict, leading to increased instability.

Iran's Regional Strategies

• Iran's Ambitions: Iran aimed to expand its influence in the region, posing challenges to key players such as Saudi Arabia and Israel, both strong allies of the United States.
• Hostile Perceptions: The Iranian Supreme Leader characterized Israel as the "Little Satan" and the United States as the "Great Satan," viewing them as external forces meddling in regional affairs.

Iran's Diplomatic Relations

• Egyptian Relations: Historically, Egypt under Nasser advocated for pan-Arabism, a concept promoting unity among Arab nations. This ideology clashed with Iran's non-Arab status. Following Nasser's death in 1970, ties between Iran and countries like Egypt improved.
• Iran-Iraq Accord, 1975: As part of this agreement, Iran halted its support for Kurdish-Iraqi separatists, leading to decreased hostilities and diminishing Israel's strategic significance for Iran.

Iran's Foreign Relations 

• Following Nasser's death in 1970, Iran's relations with countries like Egypt improved.
• The Iran-Iraq Accord of 1975 led to Iran ending support for Kurdish-Iraqi separatists, decreasing hostilities, and altering Israel's strategic importance to Iran.

Post-1979 Developments

• Although direct military conflict between Israel and Iran has not occurred, both nations have employed proxies and conducted limited strategic assaults against each other.
• Israel has intermittently targeted Iranian nuclear facilities, particularly in the early 2010s, aiming to hinder Iran's nuclear weapons development.

Stuxnet Cyberattack, 2010

• The Stuxnet cyberattack, attributed to the US and Israel, introduced a malicious computer virus that disrupted Iran's Natanz nuclear facility, marking a pivotal moment in cyber warfare as the "first publicly known cyberattack on industrial machinery."

India's Relations with Iran and Israel

• India faces a challenging situation as both Iran and Israel are crucial to its national interests.
• India advocates for immediate de-escalation, stepping away from violence, and prioritizing diplomacy to safeguard its national interest.

• Historical Relation: India-Iran relations date back to ancient times, including trade between the coast of southern Iran and India through the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea.
• Political Dimension: A friendship treaty was signed on 15 March 1950. The Tehran Declaration emphasized a shared vision for an equitable, pluralistic, and cooperative international order.
• Geo-Strategic Location: Iran's unique geographical position offers India access to Central Asia, Afghanistan, and Eurasia markets.
• Energy Security: Iran holds the second-largest gas reserves globally, providing opportunities for fuel diversification, decarbonization, and integrating gas into India's energy mix by 2030.
• Economic Ties: Bilateral trade reached US$2.5 billion in 2022, marking a 48% increase from the previous year. India exports products like sugar, man-made staple fibers, electrical machinery, and artificial jewelry, while importing items such as dry fruits, chemicals, and glassware. Iran has exempted Indian citizens from requiring a visa for travel.

Indian Trade Scenario

• Indian Exports: Sugar, man-made staple fibers, electrical machinery, and artificial jewelry.
• Indian Imports: Dry fruits, chemicals, and glassware.

Significance of Iran for India

• Historical Partnership: Iran holds a long-standing relationship with India, growing in importance over time.
• Oil Supply: Iran has been a key crude oil supplier, facing challenges due to US sanctions.
• Counterterrorism Cooperation: Both nations collaborate on combating terrorism originating from Pakistan and Afghanistan.
• Chabahar Port: India is operationalizing Iran's Chabahar Port, facilitating trade with Afghanistan and Central Asia amid transit restrictions via Pakistan.

Significance of Israel for India

• Strategic Importance:
  • India and Israel share a deep strategic relationship, particularly in defense and security.
  • Both countries have faced challenges related to extremism and terrorism, such as the 26/11 Mumbai attacks.
  • Israel provided support to India during critical times like the Kargil war in 1999.
• Defence Importance:
  • India maintains a strong partnership with Israel, focusing on various areas including the supply of advanced military technology.
  • Israel is a significant defense supplier to India, alongside countries like the US, France, and Russia.
  • Israel's role as a defense ally is crucial until India achieves self-reliance in defense production.
  • It is important for Israel to avoid getting entangled in a major conflict with Iran due to its existing challenges with Hamas and Hezbollah.

Strategic and Defence Partnership between India and Israel

• India and Israel share a deep strategic relationship, particularly in defense and security.
• Both countries have a history of supporting each other during times of crisis, such as the 26/11 Mumbai terror attacks and the Kargil war in 1999.
• Israel plays a crucial role as a defense supplier to India, focusing on providing high-technology equipment to the Indian armed forces.
• Israel's support is vital until India achieves self-reliance in defense through indigenous means.
• It is important for Israel to avoid intense conflicts, like with Iran, as it is already engaged with Hamas and Hezbollah.

Strategic Importance of the Partnership

• The strategic partnership between India and Israel is crucial for both countries, especially in the face of shared concerns regarding extremism and terrorism.
• This partnership has been strengthened through mutual support during significant crises, fostering a deep bond between the two nations.

Defence Importance of the Partnership

• India and Israel have developed one of the strongest defense relationships, focusing on various domains and the supply of advanced defense technology.
• Israel has emerged as a key defense supplier for India, alongside countries like the US, France, and Russia.
• Israel's role as a defense ally is crucial until India attains self-sufficiency in defense production through indigenous means.
• It is essential for Israel to maintain its stability and avoid getting entangled in conflicts that could jeopardize its strategic partnerships.

Israel's Role as a Defence Supplier

• Israel, alongside the US, France, and Russia, has emerged as a significant defence supplier.
• Israel plays a crucial role as an ally, providing defence equipment until India achieves self-reliance in defense through indigenous means.
• It is critical for Israel to avoid engaging in a major conflict with Iran, given its existing challenges with Hamas and Hezbollah.

Key Security Initiatives in the Indian Ocean Region

Freedom of Navigation

• India and Israel deliberated on ensuring the freedom of navigation through the Bab-el-Mandeb strait, which was under threat from Yemen’s Houthi rebels.
• The Bab-el-Mandeb Strait serves as a crucial passage connecting the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean, playing a vital role in facilitating India’s trade with the Middle East, Africa, and Europe.
• Example: This initiative aims to safeguard the uninterrupted movement of ships carrying goods between regions, promoting economic stability and international cooperation.

Operation Prosperity Guardian

• Initiated by the United States, Operation Prosperity Guardian stands as a multinational security endeavor designed to combat the escalating assaults targeting traffic destined for Israel.
• The coalition involved in this operation comprises nations such as the United Kingdom, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, and Seychelles, in addition to the United States.
• Example: Through this operation, the participating countries collaborate to enhance maritime security and protect international trade routes from threats, fostering global stability and peace.

What Are the Challenges for India amid the Iran Israel Conflict?

Addressing Geopolitical Strain

• Diplomatic Navigation: India must deftly maneuver its foreign policy to maintain relations with both Iran and Israel without taking sides.
• Mediation Efforts: Acting as a neutral mediator could enhance India's international standing and contribute to conflict resolution.

Evaluating Economic Implications

• Trade Diversification: India may explore diversifying its trade partners to mitigate the impact of any disruptions.
• Energy Security: Developing alternative energy sources can reduce dependence on Iran and Israel for energy needs.

Addressing Security Concerns

• Strategic Alliances: Strengthening security partnerships with key allies can help India address emerging threats.
• Border Security: Enhancing border security measures can safeguard against potential spillover effects from the conflict.

Enhancing Regional Influence

• Multilateral Engagements: Active participation in regional forums can boost India's influence and promote peaceful resolutions.
• Soft Power Diplomacy: Leveraging cultural ties and diplomacy can shape perceptions and enhance India's global image.

Way Forward

Following the recent market movements, it is essential to consider the following aspects:

• Diversification of Portfolio: Investors should consider diversifying their portfolios across various asset classes to mitigate risks associated with geopolitical uncertainties.
• Monitoring Global Developments: Staying informed about global events and their potential impacts on financial markets is crucial for making well-informed investment decisions.
• Long-Term Investment Strategy: Emphasizing a long-term investment strategy over short-term fluctuations can help investors navigate through uncertain market conditions.
• Consultation with Financial Advisors: Seeking guidance from financial advisors or experts can provide valuable insights and assistance in adjusting investment strategies according to market dynamics.