The Hindu Editorial Analysis- 26th April 2024 | Current Affairs & Hindu Analysis: Daily, Weekly & Monthly - UPSC PDF Download

Stability in Maldives 

Why in News?

There are several important messages from the win by Maldives President Mohammad Muizzu’s party, the PNC, in this week’s parliamentary elections. The PNC’s “super-majority” — over 70 of 93 Members of Parliament or People’s Majlis, including allies and independents — also eases Mr. Muizzu’s path to passing laws and even making constitutional amendments.

Recent Maldives-India Row:

Amid recent tensions between Maldives and India:

• There have been escalating tensions between Maldives and India.
• These tensions have been primarily due to various geopolitical issues and disagreements.
• It has impacted the diplomatic relations and cooperation between the two nations.
• Efforts are being made to address and resolve these issues through diplomatic channels.

The Latest Trigger in Maldives

• The recent catalyst stemmed from the use of inappropriate language by Maldivian ministers, targeting Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Indian populace in a general sense.
• Instances of undiplomatic language used by Maldivian ministers.

Government Actions

• President Mohamed Muizzu's administration requested the withdrawal of Indian military personnel and opted to engage with China for one of its initial foreign visits.
• Key actions taken by the government:
• President Muizzu during his visit urged China to reclaim its prominent position in tourist arrivals, a domain previously dominated by India.
• Points emphasized during the visit:

• The Background of the Incumbent Government's Rise to Power: The current government in Maldives gained power through an election campaign known as 'India Out'.
• Findings of the EU Election Observation Mission Report: An EU Election Observation Mission report highlighted that the ruling coalition in Maldives utilized anti-Indian sentiments and misinformation during the 2023 presidential elections, resulting in Mr. Muizzu's victory.
• Actions Affecting India-Maldives Relations: Maldives has chosen not to extend the agreement with India concerning a hydrographic survey of its waters. This agreement, established in 2019, permitted India to conduct surveys of Maldivian territorial waters, analyze reefs, lagoons, coastlines, ocean currents, and tide levels.

The Evolution of India-Maldives Relations

Early Diplomatic Relations (1965-1978)

• The Maldives achieved independence from British colonial rule in 1965, leading to the establishment of diplomatic ties with India.
• India played a significant role by being among the first nations to acknowledge the Maldives as an independent state.

Development of a Strategic Partnership (1978-1988)

• During this period, the signing of the Maritime Boundary Agreement in 1979 was pivotal in delineating maritime borders between India and the Maldives.

Challenges Faced: Political Turbulence (1988-2008)

• In 1988, political unrest in the Maldives triggered a coup attempt, necessitating Indian intervention through Operation Cactus.
• Operation Cactus aimed to quell the coup and uphold political stability in the Maldives, albeit straining diplomatic ties temporarily.

Normalization and Economic Cooperation (2008-2013)

• The Maldives underwent a peaceful political transition in 2008, with a focus on enhancing economic cooperation, trade, and interpersonal relationships with India.
• India actively supported the Maldives through developmental aid, particularly in infrastructure development and capacity building initiatives.

Period of Strain (2013-2018)

• Under President Abdulla Yameen's leadership, challenges emerged due to concerns like democratic regression, human rights issues, and a perceived alignment towards China.
• The Maldives' deepening engagement with China, including projects under the Belt and Road Initiative, raised strategic apprehensions for India.

Renewed Engagement and Current Scenario (2018 Onward)

• The election of Ibrahim Mohamed Solih as the Maldives' President in 2018 signaled a shift towards reinforcing bilateral relations.
• Both nations emphasized their commitment to democratic principles, with India extending financial support for diverse developmental ventures.

India's Relations with the Maldives

• India intervened militarily to stop a coup in the Maldives, aiming to maintain political stability.
• This intervention caused a temporary strain in diplomatic relations, which was later resolved.

Normalization and Economic Cooperation (2008-2013)

• After a peaceful political transition in 2008, the Maldives saw an improvement in ties with India.
• The focus shifted towards economic cooperation, trade, and stronger people-to-people connections.
• India extended developmental support to the Maldives, especially in infrastructure projects and capacity building.

Period of Strain (2013-2018)

• Challenges emerged in the relationship during Abdulla Yameen's presidency.
• Concerns arose over issues like democratic regression, human rights, and a perceived alignment with China.
• The Maldives' deepening engagement with China, including projects under the Belt and Road Initiative, raised strategic worries for India.
• The Maldives' increasing involvement with China, particularly through infrastructure projects linked to the Belt and Road Initiative, has raised strategic apprehensions for India.

Renewed Engagement (2018 Onward)

• The election of Ibrahim Mohamed Solih as the President of the Maldives in 2018 signaled a notable change in bilateral relations. There was a renewed focus on enhancing connections with India.
• This shift led to a reaffirmation of both countries' dedication to democratic principles. India also provided financial support for various developmental ventures.

Significance of Maldives for India

• Location: The Maldives' close proximity to India's west coast, merely 70 nautical miles from Minicoy and 300 nautical miles from India's west coast, holds strategic importance.

• Trade Route: Located along vital maritime trade paths from the Gulf of Aden to the Strait of Malacca, the Maldives functions as a pivotal point for almost half of India's external trade and 80% of its energy imports.
• Strategic Importance: The Maldives holds a strategic position in the Indian Ocean, and its stability and security are significant considerations for India's interests.
• Counterbalancing China: The Maldives offers India an opportunity to counterbalance China's expanding influence in the Indian Ocean, contributing to regional power equilibrium.
• Economic Partnership: India stands as one of the primary investors and tourism hubs for the Maldives, with substantial trade collaborations and infrastructure initiatives in progress.
• Defense and Security Collaboration: Starting from 1988, defense and security have been key areas of partnership between India and the Maldives. A detailed Defense Action Plan was also endorsed in 2016 to strengthen defense ties. Approximately 70% of Maldives' defense training occurs under Indian supervision, either within the islands or at India's esteemed military academies.

India-Maldives Relations

• A comprehensive Action Plan for Defence was signed in 2016 to strengthen defence collaboration.
• Approximately 70% of Maldives' defence training is conducted by India, either on the islands or in Indian military academies.

Significance of India for Maldives

• Essential Commodities: India provides Maldives with everyday necessities like rice, spices, fruits, vegetables, poultry, medicines, and life-saving drugs.
• Education: Maldivian students annually pursue higher education in Indian institutions.
• Economic Dependence: In 2022, out of the total Rs 50 crore trade between India and Maldives, Rs 49 crore constituted India's exports to Maldives. India emerged as Maldives' second-largest trade partner.
• Disaster Relief Assistance: India has been a crucial aid provider during crises. For instance, in 2004 during a tsunami, in 2014 during a water crisis, and amid the Covid-19 pandemic, India delivered essential supplies such as medicines, masks, gloves, PPE kits, and vaccines to Maldives.
• In 2014, the Maldives faced a critical drinking water crisis when its main desalination plant malfunctioned. Responding swiftly, India promptly airlifted essential drinking water supplies to the islands.
• Throughout the challenging period of the Covid-19 pandemic, India extended crucial support to the Maldives by sending vital supplies such as medicines, masks, gloves, PPE kits, and vaccines to help combat the spread of the virus.

Challenges:

• Political Instability
• Domestic Turmoil in the Maldives: Recent political unrest and changes in government have led to uncertainty, potentially complicating long-term collaborative efforts.

Chinese Influence

• Economic and Infrastructure Investments: China's increasing economic footprint in the Maldives, visible through investments in infrastructure projects and debt-trap diplomacy, may pose a challenge to India's strategic concerns in the region.
• Military Ambitions: China's naval expansion and potential military ventures in the Indian Ocean, potentially supported by the Maldives, raise apprehensions for India.

• Non-traditional threats: Piracy, terrorism, and drug trafficking are ongoing concerns in the region, necessitating continuous collaboration and intelligence sharing between India and the Maldives.
• Extremism and radicalization: The Maldives' susceptibility to religious extremism and radicalization poses a significant security risk, underscoring the need for joint efforts to combat such ideologies.

• Trade imbalance: The substantial trade imbalance between India and the Maldives has the potential to breed resentment and calls for diversification of trade partnerships.
• Impact of climate change: Both countries face heightened vulnerability to climate change and rising sea levels, mandating collaborative actions for adaptation and environmental conservation.

Overcoming the Challenges:

• Open and Transparent Communication: Regular dialogue at all levels can address concerns and build trust.
• Focus on Common Interests: Prioritizing areas like maritime security, climate change, and economic development can solidify the foundation of the partnership.
• Respect for Sovereignty and Non-interference: Both nations must respect each other's internal affairs and avoid meddling in domestic politics.
• Strengthening People-to-People Ties: Cultural exchange initiatives and educational partnerships can nurture deeper understanding and empathy.
• Addressing Internal Issues: Both India and the Maldives should tackle domestic challenges such as corruption and instability to project a positive image and cultivate a stable partnership.

Way Ahead:

• The progression of the relationship between India and Maldives mirrors a blend of geopolitical forces, leadership transitions, and shared regional concerns.
• India remains resolute in its dedications to Maldives and consistently extends efforts to foster strong ties.
• Rash decisions to dismantle the meticulously nurtured comprehensive partnership would likely have a more detrimental impact on Maldives than on India.
• Through recognizing and tackling these obstacles, India and Maldives can successfully navigate the intricacies of their association, fostering a more robust, adaptable, and mutually advantageous alliance for the future.