The Hindu Editorial Analysis- 26th June 2025 | Current Affairs & Hindu Analysis: Daily, Weekly & Monthly - UPSC PDF Download

 The ‘Axis of Upheaval’ in the West Asia conflict

 Why in News? 

 The recent ceasefire between Israel and Iran, following the U.S. bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites, has challenged the notion of a clear division in the world into rival power blocs reminiscent of the Cold War. Iran, once seen as a pivotal player in a shifting global order, has suffered significant setbacks to its political leadership and military capabilities. In this critical juncture, its primary allies, China and Russia, have opted for a cautious distance, providing minimal support beyond verbal assurances. 

Iran-Russia Military Cooperation

• Iranian Drones in Ukraine War: Iran's drone technology has been pivotal in bolstering Russia's military efforts in Ukraine. 
• Joint Efforts in Syria: Despite some regional differences, Russia and Iran previously collaborated to support the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who has since been ousted. 

Iran-China Economic Relationship

• China Benefits from Cheap Iranian Oil: Despite facing severe international sanctions, Iran continues to sell oil to China at discounted prices. This arrangement helps China meet its energy needs and supports its economic growth amidst a slowing economy. 
• Mutual Economic Advantage: For China, purchasing cheap Iranian oil is crucial for maintaining energy supplies and economic stability. For Iran, these sales provide essential cash flow, offering a financial lifeline to a country under significant economic pressure. 

Strategic Limitations of the So-Called ‘Axis’

• Narrative, Not Alliance: The alliances often referred to, such as Russia-Iran-China-North Korea, are not formal military alliances like NATO. There are no binding treaties or mutual defense clauses that obligate these countries to support each other in case of an attack. 
• No Military Compulsion: Countries involved in these so-called axes cannot be compelled to join a war even if one of their partners is attacked. 
• Ideological Convergence, Not Structure: The partnerships among these countries are based on shared visions, such as restructuring global institutions, promoting de-dollarization, creating alternatives to SWIFT, and strengthening anti-West platforms like BRICS and SCO. However, these efforts lack a military framework, which limits their ability to challenge the West in terms of hard power. 

Limited Support from Russia and China

• Diplomatic Gestures, Not Troops: Both Russia and China have offered verbal and diplomatic support to Iran, but they have not provided military backing. 
• Russia’s Stance: Russia has criticized supporters of Israel, including the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Western manipulation of non-proliferation regimes. President Putin has offered to mediate the conflict, but this proposal has been rejected by U.S. President Trump. Russia’s potential role in mediation is limited by its own constraints. 
• China’s Position: China has a long-term strategic and economic partnership with Iran, but it has not committed to military support for Iran. 

Nature of Strategic Ties with Iran

• Economic, Not Military, Partnerships: Iran has signed comprehensive strategic agreements with Russia (2025) and China (2021). These agreements primarily focus on economic cooperation rather than defense. 
• Iran’s Untapped Potential: Long-term alignment with Iran is beneficial for Russia and China due to Iran’s vast energy reserves, which are currently underutilized because of sanctions and a lack of technology. However, military disengagement remains a gap, as neither Russia nor China seems willing or capable of providing military support for Iran. 

Russia's Limitations and Loss of Influence

• War in Ukraine Drains Resources: Russia’s military and political resources are heavily tied up in the conflict in Ukraine, limiting its capacity for engagement in other areas, including support for Iran. 
• North Korean Support Shows Weakness: Reports of North Korea sending soldiers to assist Russia underscore the severe shortages in the Russian military, highlighting Russia’s weakened position. 
• Unable to Assist Iran Militarily: Due to its overstretched resources, Russia is currently unable to provide military assistance to Iran, particularly in the context of West Asia. 
• Loss of Strategic Base in Syria: Russia previously exerted influence in the region through airbases and assets in Syria. However, with the fall of the Assad regime and the rise of Ahmed Al Sharaa, a former al-Qaeda figure now aligning with Western and Arab powers, Russia has lost its significant military foothold in the region. This shift has further diminished Moscow’s influence and capacity to support Iran. 

China’s Strategic Calculations

• Verbal Support to Iran: China has publicly criticized Israel’s actions in the ongoing conflict, framing them as violations of international law. 
• Indirect Pressure on the U.S.: Following discussions between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin, China has issued statements urging the U.S. to de-escalate tensions in the region, indirectly applying pressure on American involvement. 
• Strategic Advantage in U.S. Involvement: The U.S. decision to back Israel against Iran, made by President Trump without consulting key advisers, has strategic implications. This shift refocuses U.S. military and diplomatic efforts back to West Asia, diverting attention from other critical areas such as the Indo-Pacific and Ukraine. Both China and Russia stand to gain from this reallocation of U.S. resources, creating opportunities for increased influence in their respective regions of interest. 

Present Status and Ceasefire

 A fragile ceasefire, backed by the U.S., is currently in effect, temporarily halting direct hostilities between Tehran and Tel Aviv. However, the overall situation remains unstable and subject to rapid change. 

 Conclusion 

 Iran is currently facing a series of challenges on multiple fronts. Its traditional allies, Russia and China, are primarily focused on safeguarding their own interests and are not providing significant support to Iran. Additionally, the so-called ‘Axis of Resistance’, which includes groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, has been considerably weakened. This decline further diminishes Iran’s influence and its defensive capabilities in the region. Looking to the future, regardless of whether Iran is led by hardliners or moderates, there is a growing belief that possessing nuclear weapons may be the only viable means to ensure the country’s independence and security.