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The Hindu Editorial Analysis- 5th December 2024 | Current Affairs & Hindu Analysis: Daily, Weekly & Monthly - UPSC PDF Download

The Hindu Editorial Analysis- 5th December 2024 | Current Affairs & Hindu Analysis: Daily, Weekly & Monthly - UPSC

Do not Write off Trump’s America

Why in News?

In the aftermath of Donald Trump’s resounding victory in the U.S. presidential elections, with a stunning Electoral College triumph of 312 votes to 226, the Indian commentariat appears to be divided between those lamenting the demise of Liberal America and those celebrating the rise of a right-wing transactional leader who might be “good for India”.

How the U.S. elect its President?The Hindu Editorial Analysis- 5th December 2024 | Current Affairs & Hindu Analysis: Daily, Weekly & Monthly - UPSC

  • The U.S. President is chosen indirectly through an Electoral College, not by a direct vote of the people. This means that the candidate who receives the most votes from the public does not always become President.
  • For instance, in the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton received more votes from the public than Donald Trump, but Trump won more electoral votes, which allowed him to become the 45th President of the United States.
  • Each state has a specific number of Electoral Votes (EVs), equal to the total number of Senators and Representatives that state has.
  • There are a total of 538 Electoral Votes in the U.S. Electoral College. To win the presidency, a candidate needs at least 270 out of those 538 votes.
  • The electoral process reflects the federal system of the United States. The Electoral College was created to ensure that smaller states, such as Delaware and South Dakota, have a voice in the election process.

Winner-Takes-All Approach:

  • In many states, the candidate who receives the most votes gets all of the state's Electoral Votes.
  • For instance, if Kamala Harris wins in California, she will receive all 54 of the state's Electoral Votes.
  • Similarly, if Donald Trump wins in Texas, he will obtain 40 Electoral Votes.
  • Only Maine and Nebraska use a different method, where they divide their Electoral Votes based on the results from the entire state as well as individual districts.

Stages of the US Presidential Election

Stage 1: Primaries and Caucuses

  • Primaries are state-level elections where voters select a party's presidential candidate through secret ballots. These elections take place 6 to 9 months before the general election.
  • States can have open or closed primaries depending on their party affiliation rules.
  • Caucuses are gatherings organized by parties, where members come together to discuss and openly vote for their preferred candidate.
  • The outcomes of caucuses determine how many delegates each candidate will have at the party's national convention.

Stage 2: National Conventions

  • National Conventions are events where each party officially nominates its presidential and vice-presidential candidates.
  • Delegates vote according to the results from the primaries and caucuses.
  • These conventions shift the focus from competing within the party to preparing for the general election, uniting the party around a single candidate.
  • At the convention, the presidential nominee also announces their choice for a vice-presidential running mate.
  • The vice-presidential candidate is next in line for the presidency and serves as the President of the Senate.

Stage 3: General Election

  • Voting for the U.S. President typically occurs on the first Tuesday in November every four years.
  • When voters in each state cast their ballots, they are actually choosing electors who promise to support a specific presidential candidate.
  • These electors then cast their official votes in the Electoral College in December.
  • The presidential candidate who receives the most electoral votes becomes the President of the United States.

Stage 4: Electoral College

  • The Electoral College is the final step in the process of electing the U.S. President.
  • Electors, determined by each state's congressional representation, cast their votes to decide who will be President.
  • There are a total of 538 electors, and the candidate who secures 270 votes wins the presidency.
  • The newly elected President and Vice President are inaugurated in January.

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Trump’s Trade Stance on India

  • Trump has called India a “very big trade abuser”, which could lead to new trade problems by raising tariffs on more than $75 billion of Indian exports.
  • During his first term from 2017 to 2021, there was an increase in protectionist measures that affected India's trade relationships.
  • In 2019, India lost its special trade benefits under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), which had a negative impact on $5.7 billion of its duty-free exports to the United States.

India’s Economic Ties with the U.S.

  • The U.S. is India's largest trading partner, with trade between the two countries reaching nearly $120 billion in the fiscal year 2024, slightly exceeding India's trade with China.
  • This trade relationship is very important for India as it helps the country earn foreign exchange, with 18% of India's exports going to the U.S.
  • India's exports to the U.S. include a variety of products, such as textiles, electronics, and engineering goods, making the U.S. a key market for these items.

Trump’s Approach to Trade Agreements

  • Under Trump, the U.S. shifted away from multilateral trade agreements and weakened the WTO by blocking the appointment of judges for its dispute resolution system.
  • Biden has promised to make changes, but the dispute resolution system is still not working.
  • If Trump returns, it could further diminish the WTO's power and impact global trade relationships.

U.S. Tariffs on Steel and Aluminium

  • During his first term, Trump put tariffs on steel (25%) and aluminium (10%) based on national security reasons.
  • Biden kept these tariffs but talked with India and the EU to find ways to exempt some products.
  • Trump has openly criticized India's tariff levels, calling them "high" and labeling India as a "tariff king."
  • Even though India's tariffs increased to 18.1% in 2022, the government defends these tariffs as efforts to support local manufacturing, including industries involved in the Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme.

Inflationary Pressures and Its Effect on Indian Exports

  • Higher tariffs and protectionist policies in the U.S. may lead to increased inflation.
  • A report from the Peterson Institute for International Economics indicates that under Trump's policies, U.S. inflation could rise to 9.3% by 2026, compared to an expected 1.9%.
  • Increased inflation could decrease the demand in the U.S. for Indian exports that require a lot of labor, such as textiles, gems, and leather products.
  • This drop in demand may negatively affect jobs in India that are linked to these industries.

Conclusion

  • The result of the U.S. presidential election will significantly impact India-U.S. trade relations.
  • If Trump wins, it might lead to renewed trade tensions and tariff increases, which could create difficulties for India's export-focused industries.
  • On the other hand, if Harris wins, there may be a sense of continuity in trade policies, but challenges will still exist due to a worldwide trend toward trade protectionism.

Costly Miscalculation 

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Why in News?

Martial Law has been declared in South Korea. This declaration was made by President Suk Yeol during an unexpected emergency situation. Since the 1980s, South Korea has experienced a series of democratic leaders. The announcement of martial law has left the nation in a state of shock.

What is Martial Law?The Hindu Editorial Analysis- 5th December 2024 | Current Affairs & Hindu Analysis: Daily, Weekly & Monthly - UPSC

  • Martial Law is a temporary situation declared by the government to handle unexpected dangers and crises in the country. 
  • During Martial Law, military leaders take control of civil administration and are responsible for maintaining law and order. 
  • This control can involve: 
    • Curfews that limit when people can be outside.
    • Restrictions on individual freedoms.
    • Direct involvement of the military in ensuring public safety.
  • Martial Lawis typically enforced during times of: 
    • Unrest, such as protests or riots.
    • Natural disasters that disrupt normal life.
    • Threats of invasion from outside forces.
  • It is one of the last options the government can use in cases of serious emergencies. 

Current Restrictions Under Martial Law in South Korea

  • Access to Parliament: Members of Parliament are not allowed to enter the parliament building.
  • Political Activities: The military has prohibited all political activities throughout the country.
  • Protests and Public Gatherings: All political protests and public gatherings are banned.
  • Media Control: The military has taken control of media and publishing across the nation.
  • Strikes and Walkouts: Any form of strikes and walkouts is now illegal.
  • Travel Restrictions: There may be military checkpoints that limit movement, especially in areas considered high-risk.

Martial Law in Indian Constitution

Article 34 of the Indian Constitution

Article 34 addresses the concept of martial law. In the context of India's democratic framework, this article grants the parliament specific powers to safeguard individuals in government service from legal repercussions for their actions that aim to maintain or restore order during martial law situations.

Conditions for Article 34 to be Applicable

  • The action taken must focus on maintaining or restoring order.
  • The location where the action occurs must be under the influence of martial law.

Key Features of Martial Law

  • Suspension of normal government operations and regular courts.
  • Fundamental rights are temporarily halted.
  • Implemented to restore law and order during emergencies such as war, armed insurrections, or foreign attacks.
  • Military authorities are given the power to create and enforce rules and regulations.

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Martial Law Declaration in India

  • Martial Law is declared as a final option when peace and order are quickly breaking down due to serious threats to the nation and its people.
  • This law is used to control protests, civil unrest, or rebellions.
  • It may also be put in place during war, particularly if the country's military is in another territory.
  • Typically, the President of a country has the authority to declare Martial Law when facing such situations.
  • Martial Law can last for up to 60 days during serious cases of civil disorder.
  • If the country is part of an international treaty, there may be restrictions on how long and how much Martial Law can be enforced.

Differences Between Martial Law and National Emergency

Following are the differences in between a martial law and a national emergency imposed in India: The Hindu Editorial Analysis- 5th December 2024 | Current Affairs & Hindu Analysis: Daily, Weekly & Monthly - UPSC

The document The Hindu Editorial Analysis- 5th December 2024 | Current Affairs & Hindu Analysis: Daily, Weekly & Monthly - UPSC is a part of the UPSC Course Current Affairs & Hindu Analysis: Daily, Weekly & Monthly.
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FAQs on The Hindu Editorial Analysis- 5th December 2024 - Current Affairs & Hindu Analysis: Daily, Weekly & Monthly - UPSC

1. What are the key challenges facing Trump's America as highlighted in the editorial?
Ans. The editorial discusses several key challenges, including economic disparities, political polarization, and social unrest. It emphasizes that these issues are critical for understanding the current state of America and the implications for future governance.
2. How does the article suggest we should view the political landscape in the context of Trump's presidency?
Ans. The article suggests that we should not dismiss the influence of Trump's presidency on the political landscape. It argues that understanding his impact is essential for navigating the complexities of contemporary American politics and the potential for future elections.
3. What lessons can be learned from Trump's political strategies according to the editorial?
Ans. The editorial points out that Trump's political strategies, including his ability to mobilize a base and leverage media, offer valuable lessons for both supporters and opponents. It highlights the importance of engaging with grassroots movements and understanding voter sentiments.
4. How does the article address the issue of public sentiment towards Trump's policies?
Ans. The article notes that public sentiment towards Trump's policies is mixed, with some supporting his approach to economic issues while others criticize his handling of social matters. It emphasizes the need to consider diverse perspectives when evaluating the impact of his administration.
5. What recommendations does the editorial provide for future political engagement in America?
Ans. The editorial recommends a more inclusive political engagement that prioritizes dialogue and understanding among differing viewpoints. It stresses the importance of addressing the root causes of division in order to build a more cohesive society moving forward.
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