The Hindu Editorial Analysis- 8th October 2024 | Current Affairs & Hindu Analysis: Daily, Weekly & Monthly - UPSC PDF Download

A re-balancing of India’s great power relations 

Why in News?

Prime Minister’s Narendra Modi’s participation in the sixth Quad Leaders’ Summit in Wilmington, Delaware, U.S. on September 21, 2024 has raised further hopes of consolidating security cooperation among the “four leading maritime democracies in the Indo-Pacific”. Nevertheless, it was India’s National Security Adviser (NSA) Ajit Doval’s trip to Russia in early September for the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) NSA meeting, which included a high-profile personal meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, that needs greater analysis. Mr. Doval also held one-on-one parleys with the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, which was equally significant since India is leaving no stone unturned to resolve the four-year-old military stando with China at the Line of Actual Control (LAC).

QUAD Quadrilateral Security Dialogue

• QUAD, or the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, is a strategic group made up of four nations: the United States, Japan, India, and Australia.
• The main goal of the Quad is to enhance regional security and promote economic cooperation in the Indo-Pacific area.
• These four countries have a shared interest in ensuring a free and open Indo-Pacific, as well as in supporting democracy, human rights, and the rule of law.
• The Quad also aims to address and counter China's growing influence in the region.
• Members of the Quad have conducted several meetings at both the ministerial and leaders' levels to discuss important topics, including maritime security, infrastructure development, and supply chain resilience.
• While the Quad is viewed as a way to balance China's power in the area, its members have emphasized that it is not a military alliance and is welcoming to other countries that share similar values and interests.

What is the genesis and evolution of QUAD?

• 2007: The Quad was formed during a casual meeting of leaders from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The idea was first suggested by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
• 2012: The Japanese Prime Minister introduced the idea of the 'Democratic Security Diamond' in Asia, which included the United States, Japan, India, and Australia.
• 2017: Facing increasing threats from China, the four countries renewed the Quad by broadening its objectives and creating a framework aimed at slowly building a rules-based international order.
• The first Quad discussions took place in Manila before the ASEAN Summit in 2017, involving India, Japan, USA, and Australia.
• 2020: The India-US-Japan Malabar naval exercises expanded to include Australia. This was the first official grouping of the Quad since 2017 and marked the first joint military drills among the four nations in over ten years.
• 2021: The Quad leaders held a virtual meeting and later issued a joint statement called 'The Spirit of the Quad'.

QUAD Functions

• The Quad is more of a loose group than a formal alliance.
• It lacks a decision-making body, a secretariat, or a formal structure like NATO or the United Nations.
• The group stays connected through:
  • Summits
  • Meetings
  • Information sharing
  • Military exercises
• The Quadrilateral met five times between 2017 and 2019.
• During the Raisina Dialogue in New Delhi in 2018, the navy chiefs from Japan, the US, Australia, and India came together, marking an early sign of the Quad's security framework being revived.
• Since March 2021, the Quad member countries and their leaders have been holding regular “Leaders Summits”, both online and face-to-face.
• The first virtual meeting of Quad leaders took place in March 2021.
• In September 2021, the first in-person gathering of Quad leaders occurred.
• Japan is set to host another similar summit for the Quad leaders.

What are the important prospects of the QUAD grouping?

• Enhancing regional security: The QUAD focuses on improving safety and stability in the Indo-Pacific area by encouraging a system based on rules, ensuring freedom of navigation, and adhering to international laws.
• Addressing China's growth: The QUAD is viewed as a way to respond to China's increasing assertiveness in the region. The member nations aim to balance China's influence and stop it from changing the existing conditions in the area.
• Encouraging economic collaboration: The member countries, being significant economies in the region, work towards boosting economic partnerships. In May 2022, the QUAD nations agreed to invest $50 billion in infrastructure projects in the Indo-Pacific.
• Improving maritime security: The member countries conduct joint naval exercises and maritime patrols to strengthen their ability to work together and enhance overall maritime security.
• Fostering personal connections: The QUAD aims to strengthen ties between people through academic and cultural exchanges, and to improve capabilities in disaster relief and humanitarian assistance.
• Working together on debt management: The QUAD is involved in addressing debt challenges through the G20 Common Framework with the 'Quad Debt Management Resource Portal.'

QUAD Significance

• Strategic importance: QUAD serves as a forum to address shared challenges in the Indo-Pacific region, such as the growing influence of China and its assertive actions, particularly related to the 'String of pearls' strategy.
• Economic significance: The member nations have initiated various projects like the Asia-Africa Growth Corridor, the Blue Dot Network, and the Supply Chain Resilience Initiative to boost economic development in the area. India primarily benefits from investments made by QUAD countries.
• Maritime security: QUAD enhances India’s maritime security through collaborative naval exercises and by working together on issues like freedom of navigation, piracy, and illegal fishing.
• Regional stability: QUAD plays a crucial role for India in fostering stability in the Indo-Pacific region. It is founded on the principles of a free, open, and inclusive Indo-Pacific, aiming to establish a rules-based international order.
• Post-COVID diplomacy: Following disruptions in supply chains during the pandemic, Japan and the US are looking to relocate their manufacturing away from China to limit its aggressive behavior, presenting an opportunity for India to benefit from this shift.

QUAD Outcomes

• Russian response: The Russian foreign minister labeled it as an "Asian NATO." Russia has strongly criticized the Quad, claiming it is part of a US-led policy that is "persistent, aggressive, and deceitful."
• Chinese response: China condemned the group, calling it an "Indo-Pacific NATO." They accused it of promoting a "Cold War mindset" and increasing geopolitical tensions.
• Western countries: They affirmed the Quad's commitment to helping countries in the Indo-Pacific work towards a free and open region. This area is meant to be inclusive and strong, where nations protect their citizens' interests without outside pressure.

Quad Initiatives:

• QUAD Fellowship: This initiative supports students pursuing a doctorate in STEM fields.
• Quad Vaccine Partnership: Aimed at enhancing vaccine collaboration.
• Covid-19 Global Action Plan: This plan focuses on improving coordination for recovery efforts during the Covid pandemic.
• Quad Vaccine Experts Group: This group works on vaccine strategy cooperation.
• Quad Senior Cyber Group: This group is responsible for adopting and implementing shared cyber standards.
• Cooperation in the space sector: This involves sharing satellite data among Quad members.
• Quad Climate Working Group: This group focuses on adapting to climate change and improving capacity in other Indo-Pacific nations.
• Critical and emerging technologies: This initiative promotes collaboration in essential technologies for global digital economies.

In the 2022 summit, the Quad members agreed to address non-traditional security challenges, such as illegal fishing.

QUAD Group Limitations

• Lacks definitive structure: The QUAD group does not have a formal organization, such as a secretariat or a permanent decision-making authority.
• Difficulty in addressing China's concerns: China views the QUAD group with suspicion, seeing it as an effort to limit its rise. This makes it hard for the group to interact with China in a positive way, possibly leading to tensions among the member countries.
• Imbalanced cooperation: The member countries do not share equal levels of financial resources, military strength, and strategic understanding in the Indian Ocean, leading to an imbalance that could create issues in the future.
• Limited military capabilities: The military strengths of QUAD members vary significantly, with the US being the strongest and Australia the weakest. This disparity might restrict the group's ability to act effectively when necessary.
• Domestic politics: Political situations within each country can make collaboration difficult. For instance, India's internal politics may prevent it from aligning closely with the US.
• Geopolitical challenges: Issues like territorial disputes, regional tensions, and new types of security threats will require a collective and ongoing effort from QUAD members, which could be challenging to achieve.
• Lack of coherent actions: The QUAD group has not implemented any clear actions to tackle problems in the Indo-Pacific region, and this lack of unity in action may weaken the group's reputation and effectiveness in dealing with regional issues.

Future Prospects

• Strengthening commitment and engagement:
  • Holding regular meetings with leaders, officials, and working groups.
  • Increasing cooperation with other countries in the region.
• Communicating clear intentions:
  • Making it clear that the group is not aimed at any specific country.
  • Highlighting the shared interests and benefits for all nations in the region.
• Delivering concrete outcomes:
  • Creating joint infrastructure projects to support regional economic growth.
  • Tackling common issues like climate change and maritime security.
  • Enhancing connectivity and digital partnerships.
• Building a consultative mechanism:
  • Establishing a consultative process with ASEAN and other regional groups to foster coordination and cooperation.
  • Exchanging information and intelligence on shared challenges and threats.
• Strengthening military and strategic cooperation:
  • Expanding collaboration in cybersecurity, space, and new technologies.
  • Developing joint military capabilities and improving defense cooperation.
  • Enhancing military-to-military connections and information sharing.
• QUAD Plus:
  • In 2020, the Plus format was strengthened when the United States hosted a meeting with Quad nations, including Brazil, Israel, and South Korea, to discuss a global response to COVID-19.