Method of Population Forecast

Graphical Extension Method is suitable when extension is required for small duration and past record is available for long duration.

Explanation:

Graphical Extension Method is one of the simplest methods of population forecast. It is suitable when the past record of the population is available for a long duration and the extension is required for a short duration. In this method, the past record of the population is plotted on a graph and the trend of the population is observed. The trend is then extended to the future for the required period.

Steps involved in Graphical Extension Method:

1. Plotting of Past Population Record: In this step, the past record of the population is plotted on a graph. The population data is plotted on the Y-axis, and the years are plotted on the X-axis.

2. Observing Population Trend: In this step, the trend of the population is observed by connecting the plotted points. The trend may be increasing, decreasing, or steady.

3. Extending Population Trend: In this step, the trend of the population is extended to the future for the required period. This can be done by continuing the trend line in the same direction.

Advantages of Graphical Extension Method:

1. Simple and easy to use.

2. Useful when the extension is required for a short duration.

3. Requires minimum data.

4. Provides a quick estimate of the population.

Disadvantages of Graphical Extension Method:

1. Assumes that the trend of the population will continue in the same direction.

2. May not provide accurate results if there are sudden changes in the population trend.

Conclusion:

Graphical Extension Method is a simple and easy method of population forecast. It is useful when the extension is required for a short duration and the past record of the population is available for a long duration. However, this method assumes that the trend of the population will continue in the same direction, which may not always be the case.