International Relations: April 2025 UPSC Current Affairs | UPSC Mains: International Relations PDF Download

US-China Tariff Escalation 2025

Why in News?

China has increased tariffs on US goods from 84% to 125% in response to US President Donald Trump's hike on Chinese imports to 145%. This escalation of tariffs follows Trump's earlier announcement of a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs for most countries, excluding China. The ongoing retaliatory measures have raised global economic stability concerns.

Key Takeaways

• China's tariff increase is part of a broader trade dispute with the US.
• The US-China trade tensions are driven by significant trade deficits and intellectual property concerns.
• Both nations seek to reduce reliance on each other for critical goods.

Additional Details

• Trade Deficit: The US trade deficit with China was USD 295 billion in 2024, prompting tariff hikes as the US views these deficits as a threat to fair competition.
• Geopolitical Rivalry: The conflict extends beyond trade, affecting areas such as Taiwan and South China Sea tensions, as well as competition in technology.
• Supply Chain Security: Both countries aim to enhance their supply chain resilience, especially concerning semiconductors and rare earth metals.
• Tariff Evasion: To avoid US tariffs, Chinese firms are rerouting goods through countries like Vietnam and Malaysia.

As the US and China continue to escalate tariffs, the risks of a full-scale trade war could lead to significant global economic repercussions, potentially pushing the world into recession and increasing market volatility. The US and China together account for nearly 43% of global GDP, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that a trade war could reduce global GDP by up to 7%.

Implications for India

• Supply Chain Vulnerabilities: India’s reliance on Chinese components for electronics and pharmaceuticals could lead to increased costs and delays.
• Pharmaceutical Sector Risk: Approximately 70% of Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) in India come from China, making the sector vulnerable to tariff-related disruptions.
• Export Opportunities: The US tariffs on China may open up opportunities for Indian sectors such as textiles and leather to become more competitive in the US market.

Potential Mitigation Strategies for India

• Global Actions: Revive the WTO’s Appellate Body to mediate tariff disputes and enhance South-South trade corridors.
• National Actions: Fast-track Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with the EU and UK, and strengthen Production Linked Incentive Schemes to reduce dependence on Chinese imports.
• Strategic Positioning: Promote India as a preferred alternative for supply chains exiting China, supported by initiatives like PM Gati Shakti.

In conclusion, the escalation of tariffs between the US and China presents both challenges and opportunities for India. By taking proactive measures and diversifying its trade relationships, India can mitigate risks associated with this ongoing trade conflict.

India Ends Trans-Shipment Facility for Bangladesh

 Background of the 2020 Agreement 

•  In 2020, an agreement was reached to allow the export of Bangladeshi goods through Indian Land Customs Stations (LCSs) to ports for destinations in third countries, including Europe and West Asia. 

 Reasons for Revoking the Agreement 

• India revoked the agreement citing logistical challenges, particularly severe congestion at Indian ports and airports, which was affecting India’s own export processes.
•  The decision also came in the context of strained bilateral relations, especially after remarks by Bangladesh’s Chief Advisor suggesting that Bangladesh is the sole guardian in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), thereby questioning India’s role as a Net Security Provider.

India’s Role as a Net Security Provider in the IOR

Geo-Strategic Position

• India is strategically located in the IOR with a 7,500-km coastline and proximity to critical chokepoints like the Strait of Malacca and Bab al-Mandab.
• The MAHASAGAR Vision 2025, an extension of the 2015 SAGAR doctrine, aims for mutual and holistic advancement for security and growth across regions.

Maritime Security

• India conducts anti-piracy and counter-trafficking operations in the IOR to ensure the security of Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs).

Development and Humanitarian Assistance

• India has established itself as a first responder in the IOR through rapid responses to crises such as the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, the water crisis in the Maldives in 2004, and the economic crisis in Sri Lanka in 2022.

Challenges to India’s Position in the IOR

China’s Expanding Influence

• China is increasing its influence in the IOR through its ‘String of Pearls’ strategy, which involves establishing infrastructure projects in India’s neighbourhood, such as the Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka and the Gwadar Port in Pakistan.

Regional Political and Economic Instability

• Neighbouring countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka are experiencing political and economic turmoil, which presents challenges for India’s influence and security in the region.

Non-Traditional Threats

•  India is also facing non-traditional threats due to its proximity to the Golden Crescent (Pakistan-Afghanistan-Iran) and the Golden Triangle (Laos-Myanmar-Thailand) regions, which are known for drug smuggling activities.

Ottawa Landmine Convention

Introduction
The Ottawa Convention, officially known as the Mine Ban Treaty, is a legally binding international agreement aimed at eliminating anti-personnel landmines. Adopted in December 1997 and coming into effect in March 1999, the treaty prohibits the use, stockpiling, production, and transfer of anti-personnel landmines. It also includes provisions for victim assistance, mine clearance, and international cooperation.  As of 2024, 164 countries are signatories to the treaty, while notable non-members include India, the United States, Russia, China, and Israel. India, for instance, cites security concerns due to its porous borders and ongoing insurgencies as reasons for not joining the treaty. 

Objectives of the Ottawa Convention

•  The primary objective of the Ottawa Convention is to end the human suffering caused by anti-personnel mines. These mines pose a significant threat to civilians, especially in post-conflict situations where they can cause civilian casualties long after hostilities have ceased. 
•  The treaty aims to prevent such civilian casualties by banning the use of these dangerous weapons. Additionally, it focuses on assisting in the rehabilitation of victims and restoring mined land for civilian use, ensuring that affected areas can be safely returned to communities. 

Countries Quitting the Treaty

Recently, several countries, including Poland, Finland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, have initiated their withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention, citing the need for landmines as a deterrent against potential Russian aggression. While Norway remains committed to the treaty despite regional tensions, these countries argue that the current security landscape requires them to retain the option of using landmines for defensive purposes. 

India-Sri Lanka Relations

Why in News?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's recent visit to Sri Lanka resulted in the signing of seven memorandums of understanding (MoUs) with the Sri Lankan President. This visit highlights India's commitment to its 'Neighbourhood First Policy' and aligns with the 'MAHASAGAR' vision aimed at fostering regional security and growth.

Key Takeaways

• Modi was awarded the 'Sri Lanka Mitra Vibhushana', the highest civilian honour of Sri Lanka.
• A landmark 5-year Defence MoU was signed for joint exercises and maritime surveillance.
• Agreements on energy and infrastructure, including a grid interconnection for electricity trade.
• India converted over USD 100 million in loans to grants to assist Sri Lanka's debt restructuring.
• Relics of Lord Buddha will be sent to Sri Lanka for exposition during the Vesak Day celebrations in 2025.

Additional Details

• Sri Lanka Mitra Vibhushana: This award includes a citation and a silver medal featuring Navarathna (nine Sri Lankan gems) and symbols of prosperity and eternity, reflecting shared Buddhist heritage.
• India and Sri Lanka's Defence MoU aims to enhance cooperation and reaffirmed Sri Lanka's commitment to not allow its territory to be used against India's interests.
• Projects launched include the refurbished Maho-Omanthai railway line and various solar initiatives aimed at generating green energy.
• India is a top trade partner for Sri Lanka, with bilateral trade reaching USD 5.5 billion in 2023-24.
• India has extended over USD 7 billion in credit and support during crises, including aid during the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Defence cooperation includes key military exercises like SLINEX (Navy) and MITRA SHAKTI (Army).

Overall, India and Sri Lanka share deep-rooted cultural ties and extensive cooperation across various sectors. However, challenges such as Chinese influence and domestic political sensitivities continue to impact their relationship.

Challenges in India-Sri Lanka Relations

• Chinese Presence: Concerns over China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects in Sri Lanka, particularly regarding the Hambantota Port.
• Katchatheevu Island: Disputes over fishing rights and maritime boundary violations between Indian fishermen and the Sri Lankan Navy.
• Ethnic Reconciliation: Delays in implementing the 13th Amendment to the Sri Lankan Constitution, affecting Tamil political rights.
• Domestic Political Sensitivities: The impact of political narratives in India and Sri Lanka on bilateral relations, particularly in Tamil Nadu.

Opportunities for Enhancement

• Technology for Economic Growth: Investment in Sri Lanka's growing IT sector to integrate digital services.
• Investment in Renewable Energy: Collaborating on solar and wind energy projects to reduce fossil fuel dependency.
• ETCA Implementation: Swift execution of the Economic and Trade Cooperation Agreement to boost bilateral trade.
• Maritime Regulations: Enhanced patrolling along the International Maritime Boundary Line (IMBL) to prevent illegal fishing.

The roadmap for strengthening India-Sri Lanka relations involves addressing these challenges while leveraging opportunities for economic and cultural collaboration.

Shift from Globalism to Regionalism

Why in News?

The global order is currently transitioning from universalist globalism to interest-driven regionalism and minilateralism, as nations increasingly prefer smaller coalitions over traditional multilateral institutions.

Key Takeaways

• Ongoing conflicts have exposed the limitations of global governance.
• Regionalism and minilateralism are on the rise, with countries forming geographically and culturally aligned partnerships.
• National sovereignty is being reasserted as countries prioritize self-reliance and preparedness.
• India is recalibrating its foreign policy towards regional cooperation and strategic partnerships.

Additional Details

• Global Conflicts: Conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Gaza crisis have highlighted the inefficacy of global governance structures, leading to disillusionment with institutions like the UN Security Council.
• Regionalism and Minilateralism: Regionalism refers to partnerships based on geographic and cultural ties, while minilateralism involves smaller, interest-based groups like the QUAD and I2U2, aimed at focused cooperation.
• National Sovereignty: The COVID-19 pandemic revealed vulnerabilities in global supply chains, prompting nations to focus on self-reliance and health sovereignty.
• India’s Role: India is central to regional connectivity in South Asia, engaging in projects such as BBIN and the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project.

In conclusion, the shift from globalism to regionalism reflects a significant change in international relations, with India playing a pivotal role in fostering regional integration and navigating new strategic coalitions.

A Case for the Global South in Securing Ukraine Peace

Why in News?

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine is approaching a fragile ceasefire, with recent diplomatic efforts, including maritime and energy truces facilitated in Riyadh, sparking renewed discussions about achieving lasting peace. While Western nations propose a European-led peacekeeping force, this initiative faces significant strategic, political, and perceptual hurdles. Conversely, a coalition from the Global South, comprising countries from Africa, Asia, and Latin America, supported by the United Nations, presents a more neutral and credible alternative for peacekeeping in Ukraine.

Key Takeaways

• A European-led peacekeeping initiative is complicated by Russia's opposition, viewing it as a NATO expansion.
• The Global South offers a neutral diplomatic stance, enhancing its credibility as peacekeepers.
• Countries like India, Brazil, and South Africa have substantial experience in UN peacekeeping missions.
• Technological and operational capabilities from the Global South can address specific challenges like demining.

Additional Details

• Challenges of a European-led initiative: Russia perceives any NATO-affiliated force as a threat, which could exacerbate tensions rather than foster peace.
• Global South's neutral stance: Nations from the Global South adhere to principles of non-alignment and respect for sovereignty, providing a balanced approach to diplomacy.
• Experience in peacekeeping: Countries like India have contributed extensively to UN missions, bringing valuable operational knowledge.
• Technological capabilities: Despite resource limitations, Global South nations have developed niche expertise, such as Chile's proficiency in humanitarian demining.
• Political legitimacy: A Global South-led mission would be viewed more favorably by the international community, avoiding perceptions of geopolitical rivalry.

Achieving lasting peace in Ukraine requires more than temporary ceasefires; it necessitates a credible and neutral peacekeeping force. A Global South-led initiative, backed by the United Nations, can pave the way for an equitable resolution, reflecting a shift towards a more inclusive global order. With India's rich legacy in peacekeeping and diplomatic credibility, now is the time for the Global South to take a leading role in international peace efforts.

6th BIMSTEC Summit

PM Modi at the 6th BIMSTEC Summit

•  Prime Minister Narendra Modi participated in the 6th BIMSTEC Summit, which was hosted by Thailand, the current chair of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC). 

About BIMSTEC

• Formation: BIMSTEC is a regional cooperation organization established in 1997 with the signing of the Bangkok Declaration. 
• Members: It includes countries from South and Southeast Asia bordering the Bay of Bengal. Founding members were Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka, and Thailand. Current members are Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Thailand. 
• Objective: The organization aims to promote economic growth, social development, and advancements in areas like science, technology, and economic development among its member countries. 

Recent Summit Details

• Theme: The summit's theme was “BIMSTEC: Prosperous, Resilient, and Open,” emphasizing shared growth amidst global uncertainties. 
• Significance: This summit marked the first in-person meeting of BIMSTEC in seven years. 
• Leadership: The chairmanship of BIMSTEC was handed over to Bangladesh during this summit. 

Initiatives Proposed by India

• Disaster Management: Establishing the BIMSTEC Centre of Excellence for Disaster Management in India, conducting joint exercises, and enhancing disaster management cooperation. 
• Youth Skilling: Launching the BODHI Program to provide training and scholarships to 300 youths from BIMSTEC countries in India annually. 
• People-to-People Linkages: Hosting various events such as the BIMSTEC Athletics Meet, BIMSTEC Games, and a Traditional Music Festival to strengthen cultural ties. 
• Youth Initiatives: Organizing a Young Leaders’ Summit, Hackathon, and a Young Professional Visitors program to engage the youth of BIMSTEC countries. 
• Digital Infrastructure: Conducting a pilot study on Digital Public Infrastructure and cancer care capacity building. 
• Economic Cooperation: Proposing the establishment of a BIMSTEC Chamber of Commerce, Business Summit, and integrating India's UPI with BIMSTEC payment systems. 
• Space Cooperation: Building nano-satellites for BIMSTEC nations and exploring ground station setups and remote sensing data usage. 
• Maritime Transport: Proposing a Sustainable Maritime Transport Centre in India to enhance coordination and research in maritime policies. 

Outcomes of the Summit

• BIMSTEC Bangkok Vision 2030: The first long-term plan aiming to make BIMSTEC more prosperous, strong, and open by 2030, focusing on improving trade, transport links, and people’s well-being.
• Rules of Procedure: Establishing clear operational rules for BIMSTEC to enhance its functionality and efficiency.
• Report by the BIMSTEC Eminent Persons’ Group: Providing strategic recommendations aligned with the 2030 vision.
• Maritime Transport Cooperation Agreement: Signing a new agreement to enhance sea transport between South and Southeast Asia, aiming to lower shipping costs and expedite trade.

India-Bangladesh Relations

Recent High-Level Talks Between India and Bangladesh

Recently, on the sidelines of the BIMSTEC Summit in Bangkok, the Prime Minister of India and Bangladesh’s Chief Adviser held their first high-level talks since the regime change in Dhaka.

India-Bangladesh Relations

Major Historical & Diplomatic Milestones

Political and Strategic Cooperation

• There are nearly 70 ongoing bilateral institutional mechanisms between India and Bangladesh covering areas such as security, trade and commerce, power and energy, transport and connectivity, science and technology, defense, rivers, and maritime affairs.
• India has consistently supported Bangladesh’s infrastructure, security modernization, border management, and counter-terrorism.

Trade and Economic Partnership

• Bangladesh is India’s biggest trade partner in South Asia and India is the second biggest trade partner of Bangladesh in Asia.
• In FY 2023-24, the total bilateral trade has been reported as USD 14.01 billion.
• Bangladesh exported USD 1.97 billion of goods to India in FY 2023-24.
• Key developments:
• Duty-free access of Bangladeshi goods to Indian markets under SAFTA.
• Development of border haats and integrated check posts (ICPs).
• Investments in power, transport, and logistics.

Connectivity and Infrastructure

• Railway Connectivity:
• Agartala – Akhaura;
• Haldibari – Chilahati;
• Petrapole – Benapole;
• Gede – Darshana;
• Singhabad – Rohanpur;
• Radhikapur – Birol.
• Railway trains operating between the two countries:
• Maitri Express (connecting Kolkata and Dhaka);
• Bandhan Express (connecting Kolkata and Khulna); and
• Mitali Express (between New Jalpaiguri and Dhaka).
• Port Connectivity:
• Both countries have operationalized the Agreement for the usage of Chittagong and Mongla Ports in 2023.
• This agreement allows India to avail the services of these ports in Bangladesh for transit cargo between Northeast and mainland India.
• Development of inland waterway transport under the Protocol on Inland Water Transit and Trade (PIWTT).

Energy Cooperation

• Joint ventures like the India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline (IBFPL) inaugurated in 2023 for diesel export from India to northern Bangladesh.
• Collaboration on renewable energy projects such as solar and hydroelectric power.

Cultural and People-to-People Ties

• Common linguistic and cultural bonds, especially in regions like West Bengal and Bangladesh, are strengthened through various means such as:
• Cultural exchanges between the two countries;
• Celebrations like Maitree Diwas, which foster goodwill;
• Academic and technical scholarships, such as the Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation (ITEC) program, which facilitates skill development.

Key Regional Groupings Common To India and Bangladesh

• South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC)
• BIMSTEC: It aligns with India’s ‘Neighbourhood First’ and ‘Act East’ policies.
• Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal Initiative (BBIN): Currently, India, Bangladesh, and Nepal are working together on this initiative, as Bhutan has opted out of its implementation.
• Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor (BCIM): This corridor is part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) framework and was conceptualized to improve trade and connectivity between the four nations. Bangladesh has supported the corridor but remains mindful of India’s reservations regarding it.
• Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA): This association focuses on maritime security, blue economy, disaster risk management, and trade among member countries.
• South Asia Subregional Economic Cooperation (SASEC): This program, under the Asian Development Bank (ADB), includes India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, Maldives, and Myanmar.

Key Concerns and Challenges

• Border Security: The border between India and Bangladesh, which is 4,096.7 km long (the fifth-longest in the world), is porous and vulnerable to illegal crossings, smuggling, and trafficking. Recent clashes between border guards have heightened tensions, indicating the need for improved cooperation and security measures.
• Teesta River Dispute: The Teesta River dispute is a long-standing issue concerning the equitable sharing of water from the Teesta River, which flows between India and Bangladesh. Bangladesh seeks a larger share of the river’s water than it currently receives. In addition to the Teesta, there are over 54 other rivers that cross the border between the two countries. However, the Joint Rivers Commission, which is responsible for addressing such issues, has not convened since 2010, exacerbating the situation.
• China’s Growing Influence in Bangladesh: India is concerned about Bangladesh’s increasing ties with China, particularly in areas like infrastructure development and defense cooperation. This growing relationship is perceived by India as a potential threat to its strategic interests and influence in the region.
• Cross-Border Migration and Demographic Shifts: The historical and often undocumented migration of people from Bangladesh to certain Indian states, such as Assam and West Bengal, remains a politically sensitive topic. The influx of Bengali-speaking Muslims into these states is particularly contentious and has led to political and social tensions in India.
• Minority Rights: India has raised concerns about the treatment and safety of religious minorities in Bangladesh, especially the Hindu community. Reports of discrimination or violence against minorities in Bangladesh have prompted India to voice its apprehensions, even as Bangladesh’s interim government assures its commitment to protecting all citizens’ rights.
• NRC and Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA): The implementation of the National Register of Citizens (NRC) in Assam and the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) in India has raised fears in Bangladesh about a potential influx of Bengali-speaking Muslims into its territory. The NRC aims to identify illegal immigrants, while the CAA provides a pathway to citizenship for certain religious minorities from neighboring countries. These policies have led to concerns in Bangladesh about the reverse flow of people, exacerbating tensions between the two countries.
• Trade Imbalances and Non-Tariff Barriers: Bangladesh has long expressed grievances about non-tariff barriers imposed by India on Bangladeshi goods. These barriers hinder trade and create an imbalance in favor of India. Additionally, the slow progress in granting duty-free access to a broader range of Bangladeshi products in India has been a point of contention, straining trade relations.

Way Forward

• Strengthening Dialogue: Regular high-level talks between India and Bangladesh can enhance mutual understanding and help address contentious issues. The implementation of the Coordinated Border Management Plan (CBMP) has already shown positive results in reducing friction along the border through improved patrolling and joint efforts.
• Promoting Inclusivity: Both nations should prioritize the welfare of marginalized communities, ensuring their safety and inclusion in development efforts. This includes addressing concerns related to minority rights and ensuring equitable treatment for all citizens.
• Diversifying Partnerships: Bangladesh can explore partnerships beyond India to assert its independence and diversify its international relationships. Meanwhile, India can recalibrate its approach to avoid perceptions of favoritism and strengthen its ties with other neighboring countries.

Conclusion: Bangladesh-India relations are at a critical juncture, requiring both nations to navigate complex challenges with diplomacy and pragmatism. By fostering dialogue, promoting inclusivity, and diversifying partnerships, they can pave the way for a stronger and more resilient bilateral relationship.

Soft Power of US and India

Why in News?

Recent shifts in policy under the Trump administration, driven by the 'America First' agenda, have resulted in a decline in US soft power, affecting its global influence and strategic position.

Key Takeaways

• Soft power is the ability to influence others through attraction and persuasion.
• The decline of US soft power is attributed to weakening alliances, reduced humanitarian engagement, and unstable trade and immigration policies.
• India possesses significant soft power through cultural influence, democratic values, and economic growth.

Additional Details

• Soft Power: Defined by political scientist Joseph Nye, soft power refers to shaping preferences through cultural and diplomatic means rather than coercive actions.
• Declining US Soft Power:
  • Weakening Alliances: Unilateral actions and criticism of NATO have strained relationships with allies.
  • Declining Humanitarian Engagement: Cuts to USAID and rejection of DEI policies have decreased US influence.
  • Unstable Trade Policies: Protectionism risks economic credibility, affecting ties with key partners.
  • Higher Education Appeal: Crackdowns on student protests and funding cuts have deterred international students.
• India's Soft Power Elements:
  • Cultural Influence: Yoga, Bollywood, and Indian cuisine enhance global appeal.
  • Democracy & Leadership: India's democratic model and historical ties inspire developing nations.
  • Economic Growth: India has played a significant role in global IT and vaccine diplomacy during the Covid-19 pandemic.
  • Humanitarian Aid: India provides disaster relief and financial assistance globally.
• Challenges to India's Soft Power:
  • Fragmented efforts due to poor coordination among institutions.
  • Limited financial resources compared to other nations.
  • Lack of structured frameworks to engage the Indian diaspora effectively.

In conclusion, the decline of US soft power highlights the necessity for a balance between military strength and cultural influence. India can leverage a strategic blend of soft and hard power to enhance its global standing by bolstering cultural diplomacy and forming strategic partnerships in a multipolar world.

Insurgency in Balochistan

Introduction

The Baloch Insurgency is a complicated and ongoing conflict in the Balochistan region of Pakistan and parts of Iran. It involves Baloch separatist groups and some Islamist factions fighting against the governments of Pakistan and Iran. The main issues at the heart of this conflict are demands for greater control over natural resources, political autonomy, and in some cases, the desire for an independent Balochistan.

Balochistan is rich in natural resources but is also the poorest and least developed area in Pakistan. The Baloch people feel marginalized and believe they do not receive a fair share of the wealth generated from their land. The situation is further complicated by historical grievances, the heavy-handed tactics of security forces, and the complex ethnic and tribal dynamics of the region.

Over the years, the conflict has seen various phases of intensity, with different Baloch groups employing guerrilla tactics, attacks on security forces, and other forms of resistance. The Pakistani government has responded with military operations, often accused of human rights abuses, including enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings.

International organizations like Amnesty International have highlighted these abuses, adding to the complexity and international attention surrounding the conflict.

History of the Insurgency In Balochistan

•  The conflict in Balochistan has a deep-rooted history marked by various factors such as weak tribal alliances, economic exploitation, and competition with neighboring ethnic groups. These historical elements have contributed to the recurring insurgencies led by Baloch nationalists, making it challenging to pinpoint a single cause for the conflict. 
• The emergence of a Baloch national identity dates back to the pre-colonial period when Balochistan was a fragmented society. In the 18th century, Nasir Khan, a prominent figure in Baloch history, unified the Baloch tribes and established the region's first administrative system. However, the tribal alliances set up by Khan were unstable, leading to economic stagnation and conflicts with neighboring Pashtuns and Punjabi dominance.
• At the time of India's Partition in 1947, Balochistan comprised four princely states: Kharan, Kalat, Las Bela, and Makaran. While Kalat sought independence, the other states acceded to Pakistan. Initially, Pakistan's founder, Jinnah, respected Kalat's sovereignty. Still, British forces intervened, leading to its annexation in 1948, which fueled resentment against the Pakistani government.
•  Over the years, opposition to the Pakistani government grew, particularly after the One-Unit policy in 1955, which further centralized power and aggravated Baloch discontent. Various uprisings and movements for autonomy and independence emerged, influenced by regional and global events. 

Reasons Behind the Baloch Insurgency

• Economic Marginalization: Baloch separatists argue that their region is economically deprived compared to the rest of Pakistan. Despite being rich in natural resources like natural gas, iron, and gold, Balochistan remains one of the poorest provinces. The local population is often limited to low-skilled jobs due to a lack of education and infrastructure, contributing to widespread poverty.
• Historical Grievances: The annexation of Balochistan by Pakistan in 1948 and the subsequent dissolution of its local government in 1973 have left deep scars. Baloch nationalists feel that their historical rights and sovereignty were disregarded, fueling resentment against the central government.
• Weak Grievance Redressal Mechanisms: Balochistan lacks effective mechanisms for addressing grievances, with Punjabi elites dominating the bureaucracy. This has led to the sidelining of Baloch representation in governance, further aggravating feelings of marginalization and injustice.
• Exploitation of Resources: Projects like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the development of Gwadar Port are seen by Baloch nationalists as benefiting the Pakistani elite at the expense of local communities. There are fears of demographic changes and further exploitation, as these projects are perceived to marginalize the local population.
• Human Rights Abuses: Both the governments of Pakistan and Iran have been accused of human rights violations in their efforts to suppress the insurgency. Reports of extrajudicial killings, forced disappearances, and other abuses have drawn international condemnation and fueled anger among Baloch nationalists.

Note: The Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) is one of the most well-known separatist groups, but it is designated as a terrorist organization by Pakistan, the United States, and the United Kingdom. Other groups, like the Balochistan Liberation United Front (BLUF) and Lashkar-e-Balochistan, also advocate for Baloch independence and have been involved in violent actions against the state.

India's Implication

• Blame on India: Pakistan often accuses India of supporting the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) and other separatist groups in Balochistan. This narrative is used to justify military crackdowns and to frame the insurgency as part of a larger foreign conspiracy against Pakistan.

• Historical Justifications: Pakistan links its current actions against Baloch separatists to historical grievances, suggesting that Indian support for these groups is a continuation of past hostilities. This perspective is particularly emphasized in the context of India's role during the Bangladesh Liberation War in 1971, when India supported the Bangladeshi independence movement against Pakistan.

• Strategic Narrative: By portraying the Baloch insurgency as an Indian-backed operation, Pakistan aims to strengthen its narrative of being a victim of external aggression. This is intended to rally domestic support for military operations in Balochistan and to gain sympathy from international audiences.

• Internal Security and Political Stability: Pakistan is concerned that the growing instability in Balochistan could spill over into other regions, including Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and even Punjab. The recent rise in violence in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa since the Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan is seen as a potential threat to Pakistan's internal security and political stability.

• Monitoring Indian Reactions: Pakistan is also wary of how India will respond to the escalating situation in Balochistan, especially with India's interest in the stability of its own regions, such as Jammu and Kashmir. Pakistan is cautious about any potential Indian interventions or support for anti-Pakistan elements in response to the Baloch situation.